The draft is winding down. “Only four more rounds to go. C’mon, c’mon, c’mon. Make your pick!” You’re yelling at the team currently drafting, one spot in front of you. “I wonder what I’m going to do for lunch.” You catch yourself with these thoughts running through your head but don’t think twice. Little do you know that this could be the difference between first, and, well, not first. As Reese Bobby so eloquently put it, “if you ain’t first, you’re last.”

Who will be this year's Jamaal Charles?

Rule #6: Don’t be afraid of the St. Louis Rams. Or the Detroit Lions. Or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Or the Kansas City Chiefs. I think you get the point. Don’t stay away just because a team had a bad record (5-11 or worse) or a terrible offense the year before. A few of these teams made significant moves in the offseason: the Washington Redskins (4-12) traded for veteran Quarter Back Donavan McNabb. The Cleveland Browns (5-11) signed QB Jake Delhomme. Some of these teams added impact players through the draft. Detroit traded up to get running back Jahvid Best and the Bucs snagged Mike Williams. I could go on. But, for the most part, these teams still stink (ok, the Redskins have a chance). I don’t think anyone, besides a few disillusioned St. Louisans who only remember the days of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” is predicting the Rams to win the Super Bowl, let alone get to the playoffs. Heck, I’d be impressed if they can get more than 4 wins. But that doesn’t mean that the players on the team are worthless and undraftable.

If anything, this makes these players all the more draftable. Steven Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew are just a few elite players, in case you forgot which teams they are on, that play on a team that won 5 games or fewer in the 2008-2009 season. MJD finished 3^rd among fantasy running backs, and Jackson finished 10^th. In Jackson’s fourth year, his Rams won three games, five fewer than the year before, but he put up his best numbers (1528 rushing yards, 806 yards receiving, and 16 total TDs).

However, it’s not just the elite players that can succeed in such an environment. Jamaal Charles was the 2^nd string running back for the Chiefs for the first half of the season until struggling starter Larry Johnson practically asked the Chiefs to show him the door. Charles took advantage of the opportunity and finished the season as the 12^th best fantasy running back in the league. In the last eight weeks of the season (from weeks 10-17 in which Charles was the premier back), the man rushed for an astounding 968 yards on 161 carries for an average of 6.01 yards per carry, and 121 rushing yards per game. In most leagues last year, Charles was either taken in the last few rounds (like in my league), or not at all.

Now, before we get too carried away with Charles’ numbers, we have to remember that he faced mostly terrible run defenses. 5 of his 8 opponents ranked 26^th or worse in run defense, according to Yahoo! statistics. But there is good news (besides the fact that I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by switching to Geico), In weeks 11, 12 and 16, in which he faced the Pittsburgh Steelers, ranked 3^rd against the run, the San Diego Chargers, ranked 20^th in rush-defense, and the Cincinnati Bengals, ranked 7^th against the run, Charles scored 12, 20.7, and 12.4 points, respectively. If we assume that Jamaal Charles continues a reasonable 12 point production over the course of a 16-week season, he ends with 192 points, good enough for the 9^th best fantasy running back in the league! It’s too bad for fantasy owners interested in drafting Charles, the Chiefs went out and signed top-notch veteran Thomas Jones. Jones was the 5^th best fantasy back last year amassing 1402 rushing yards and 14 TDs while playing with the New York Jets, for a total of 221 fantasy points. Expect Jones and Charles to split the carries, with Charles getting a bigger load, but Jones receiving more Red Zone duties, severely cutting into Charles’ value.

Unfortunately, there isn’t always a Jamaal Charles every year. But there are many players that can be snagged, like Charles, in the last few rounds, and end up contributing to your team in big ways. Most of these picks are based more on feeling than stats, because these are low-risk, high-reward players. They are being taken at the bottom of the draft for a reason: they simply haven’t performed consistently.

When I look for Quarterback sleepers, I look for three things: accuracy (completion %), decision making (interceptions), and the players around him. For the most part, you can get by with stats. Exhibit “A” is Carson Palmer, QB for the Cincinnati Bengals, who is currently being drafted 105^th, in ESPN standard leagues, as the 15^th QB. Palmer has the 7^th best offensive line, according to profootballfocus.com’s Neil Hornsby, including the 6^th best passing line and 8^th best rushing line. Many seem to forget the three years preceding Palmer’s knee injury when he passed on average for 4001 yards, 29 TDs, 15 Ints, and a 65% completion percentage (for comparison, top fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers, completed 64.7% of his passes in ‘09). That’s good enough for roughly 246 points, which would have put him as the 9^th best fantasy QB in the league. I think he can do even better than that while keeping his interceptions at a more than acceptable number. While Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are aging, they are two best friends locked in competition (T.O. joined Ochocinco on Chad’s “The Bachelor” style show, “Ultimate Catch” in which T.O. acted as Chad’s friend and confidant.) I am convinced this will push them to have better than expected years. Antonio Bryant, who is not yet 30, was brought in to bring another veteran to the receiving corps, and third-year receiver Andre Caldwell, add great depth. If you miss out on any of the top QBs, remember that you can fall back on Palmer in the late rounds to provide you with adequate fantasy points.

The best sleeper running backs are the ones that are the primary backs. This seems like an obvious statement, but I am still scratching my head, wondering why Carnell “Cadillac” Williams is being drafted, on average, with the 112.9 pick. Yes, the Tampa Bay offensive line is atrocious, ranking 31^st in the run last season, but Williams still managed over 1,000 total yards (821 of them coming from the run). With the addition of Mike Williams (more on him later), the Tampa Bay offense will hopefully move to a more balanced, two-dimensional game. This will make defenses cover more against the pass, and take a defender or two out of “the box”. The Luxury Sedan was able to get the yards (his yardage stats were similar to 19^th best Pierre Thomas), but not the TDs, costing him those precious few points that separates the starters from the bench warmers. If Williams can get a few more TDs next season, he will turn into an instant fantasy starter.

I always find myself telling a friend, “someone has to catch the ball, right?” Right. Someone has to, and almost always, someone does. So why is it that countless #2 receivers are being picked over clear-cut #1s? I mean, I understand why you would take Wes Welker over anyone on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Mike Williams is being drafted on average with pick 144.6! He has impressed in his first two games and in now the number one receiver on the team (which isn’t saying much, but still). Williams will see enough targets to give him fantasy value. He probably won’t break into the top-20, but as one of your late fliers, he’s just one of the many WRs worth a shot.

Not satisfied with my late-round picks? Don’t worry. Be happy. Dr. Z’s Zzzzzs (Sleepers) and Busts will be out soon to give you more late-round fire power.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Rule #5: KAGNOF. An acronym I am stealing from one of my favorite, and funniest, fantasy baseball blogs, Razzball.com, KAGNOF is similar to Razzball’s term SAGNOF: “Saves Ain’t Got NO Face” (and also “Steals Ain’t Got NO Face,” but the latter is more common). In this case, my term is Kickers Ain’t Got NO Face (I know, I’m very creative and original. What can I say?).

KAGNOF. 10 points to the first who can tell me the name that goes along with this face, and the team he played for.

KAGNOF simply means that all kickers are pretty much the same. They are valuable only in that they are the ones chosen by their NFL team to go out and kick an oblong ball between two uprights, spaced 18 feet and 6 inches apart, and 10 feet off the ground.

I tried to find a single statistic that could determined the fantasy success of a kicker. Many “experts” advise drafting kickers on a strong offensive team that moves the ball and racks up yards. The logic follows that teams that can move the ball downfield will get the ball in the kicker’s range more often, leading to more field goal attempts. More field goal attempts will result in a higher number of successful conversions and higher fantasy points. If the team moves the ball into the end zone for a TD, than the kicker will get one point for the extra point. Either way, the kicker scores fantasy points. The main problem with this theory is that it does not account for teams with strong defenses that force turnovers and put their team in good field position. Since good field position, by definition, means fewer yards for the offense to travel to the end zone, these teams often don’t rank very high in yards per game. But on these teams, the ball is in the kicker’s range more often (because of the good field position) leading to a higher number of attempts. And, just like before, a higher number of attempts results in a higher number of successfully converted field goals.

New York Jets and their kicker Jay Feely are a perfect case of my point. The Jets ranked 20^th among all offenses, averaging 321 yards per game, compared to the top-ranked New Orleans Saints, who compiled on average 403.8 yards/game. The Jets defense however, was tops in the league, allowing a stingy 252.3 yards/game and 14.8 points per game, both stats leading the league in their respective category. Feely meanwhile, finished 5^th among fantasy kickers, only 26 points behind the top scorer, which comes out to a difference of 1.7 points per week. Not much. Seems like this theory is as consistently correct as Martin Gramatica’s ability to safely celebrate after a successful field goal conversion.

As long as Lucy from Peanuts or Tony Romo is not the holder, almost any Kicker will suffice.

Another idea that floats out there wildly, like a Mike Vanderjagt field goal attempt during the playoffs, is that kickers on teams that score more points per game, instead of just racking up meaningless yards, benefit from the high scoring, which transfers over to fantasy points. Either the kicker contributes by kicking field goals or extra points. It would seem to follow that kickers that kick more extra points, and are therefore on high octane offenses, would also translate to fantasy success. But fantasy games are usually not won on extra points, which are only worth one point each, but instead by long field goals of 50-plus yards, or multiple, shorter, field goals. But teams that score touchdowns are more likely to lead in the scoring category without giving their kicker a chance to score tons of fantasy points. In fact, last year, four of the top ten fantasy kickers were on teams that were ranked outside of the top ten in points per game. Three of the four, Rob Bironas of the Tennessee Titans, Jay Feely of the New York Jets, and Matt Prater of the Denver Broncos, were ranked 16^th or worse (16^th, 17^th, and 19^th respectively). Bironas scored the 4^th highest fantasy points among kickers while Prater and Bironas were tied for 5^th. Similarly, In 11 games, temporary New Orleans Saints place kicker John Carney had as many point afters as fantasy leading kicker, Nate Kaeding, of the San Diego Chargers, had in all 16 games. In those eleven weeks, Carney scored a total of 87 fantasy points, an average of 7.9 points per week. An average that, extrapolated out to cover a full season, would give him roughly 126 points, good enough for 9^th among fantasy kickers. Carney was eventually replaced by the 22 years-younger Garret Hartley, who finished with very similar statistics as Carney. Hartley scored 32 fantasy points in his five games. If you add Hartley’s points in 5 games, and Carney’s points in 11 games, to make a full, 16 game, season, the Saints kickers’ fantasy total comes out to 122 points, tied with Pittsburgh Steelers’ Jeff Reed for 10^th. Not great for the team that lead the league in TDs and extra point attempts (the Saints also did not attempt a single 2 point conversion in the 2009 regular season). Like Vanderjagt’s attempt, this idea didn’t have much of a chance from the moment it left the ground.

But it really doesn’t matter that I was not able to find a reliable stat to predict the success of fantasy kickers. Last season, the #1 fantasy kicker, Nate Kaeding, finished with 155 points. The worst starting kicker, or the #10 fantasy kicker, was Jeff Reed, who scored 122 points. The difference between the two is 33 points. Last year the difference between the best and 10^th best was an even smaller 25 points. In 2007 and 2006, just 37 and 31 points respectively. This is even smaller than the difference in Defenses and Special Teams (D/ST), which I wrote about in Rule #4.

The only reliable indicator of fantasy kicking success is that the kickers that had the highest number of successful field goals tended to be ranked among the top fantasy kickers. A real surprise! Right? There are just too many variables at play to find a reliable predictor for the following season. How can you predict which team will give their kicker the opportunities to successfully kick more field goals? We ruled out teams with strong offenses, both in yardage and scoring. Perhaps strong defenses, like the Jets? Nope. That was one of the least reliable indicators I examined.

But not only do you have to predict a statistic for a team, you also have to factor in the value of each tier of kick. In ESPN standard leagues, a kick under 39 yards is 3 points, a kick between 40 and 49 yards is worth 4 points, and a kick over 50 yards is worth 5 points. And it’s not rare to see those values vary. Additionally, a field goal missed, at any distance, is -1 points. With all that in mind, it’s practically impossible to correctly predict kickers’ fantasy numbers.

Therefore, the top 10 kickers (you, or anyone else in your league, would be crazy to draft more than one kicker, or maybe just unprepared and unknowledgeable like this guy), are almost equivalent, so why waste a pick by taking a kicker before the last round? I don’t care what your buddy says about how many times the Minnesota Vikings are going to get into the Red Zone with the gun-slinger back in purple and leading them down the field. KAGNOF! Draft them with your last pick. Always. Or if you’ve made a mistake earlier in the draft and see a steal, don’t draft a kicker at all: grab the “steal” and pick up the booter in free agency before week one. In case you still doubt me, I’m not alone.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Now you know not to gamble on a defense (click here to read Rule #3). But I still haven’t answered your question. Should you go for the deep bomb threat of DeSean Jackson? Or do you choose the consistent Wes Welker?

Rule #4: Avoid the Home Run Hitter! Consistency is Critical. The season is short – only 16 games (compare that to 82 in basketball and hockey, and 162 in baseball). It’s nice to have a guy who you can depend on, plug into your lineup and not have to worry about the matchups, whether it’s home or away, on grass or turf. Players who perform season in and season out, game in and game out, can anchor a team.

When I look for consistency, I ignore everything but yards. TDs depend too much on circumstance and vary from season to season. It’s very difficult to predict the difference between 13 TDs and 10, the difference between three deep passes caught, or three long runs broken off, and also the difference between the league leaders in TD receptions, Vernon Davis and Randy Moss, and #s 7-9, Brandon Marshall, Dallas Clark, and Reggie Wayne.

Then Cleveland Browns WR Braylon Edwards, now of the New York Jets, is just one WR who has fallen prey to the inconsistencies of the deep pass

In earning my doctorate of fantasy football, I researched to confirm what I have for so long followed as just a hunch. I looked, for each year, at the top-ten touchdown (TD) receiving players over the past five years (from the 2005-2006 season to the 2009-2010 season). I ended up with 44 players, a combination of receivers and tight ends, over the 5 individual years, of which 5 retired before the ‘09-‘10 season, and 1, Greg Jennings, was a rookie before the ‘05-‘06 season. I threw these six out of the set and used the data for the 38 others. Just over a third (13 of the 38) of the receivers was in the top-ten for two of the five years. Of those 13, 11 of these players had their two year-stints in back-to-back years. 6 of these 13 (or 6 of 38) reached the top-ten in TDs for three of the five years (Randy Moss, T.O., Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, and Marques Colston). Fitzgerald and Gates, 2 out of the 38, found their way into the top ten 4 out of 5 of the years. Each seasons’ bottom player caught either eight or nine TDs (it alternated each of the five seasons) and except for Randy Moss’ record-breaking ‘07-‘08 23 TD season, the top receiver caught either 12 (‘05-’06 and ’08-’09) or 13 (‘06-’07 and ’09-’10) TDs. The numbers were very consistent, but, as we can see from the data, most of the receivers were not.

This past season, a combined total of 15 receivers and tight ends who caught the top-ten cut-off, 9, TDs or more. In the past five years less than 30% or 4 players would repeat their past year’s feat. But before we get ourselves any further into what could be a statistical nightmare, there must be an easier and better way to predict the future. Right?

Luckily for us, focusing on the receiving yards, like I originally thought, seems to be a relatively strong indicator of future performance based on previous year’s success at the receiver and end positions. However, it’s not the number of total yards, but rather, how the receiver gets these yards. Thomas Sharkey over at profootballfocus.com discovered deep threat receivers, those whose yards per catch (YPC) exceeded 16.0, saw a drop-off in production in the very next season in the large majority of players. My data of the top-ten receivers also supported this claim. 6 of the 38 receivers exceeded 16.0 YPC. While one of the six, Reggie Williams, retired, only one, Greg Jennings of the Green Bay Packers was able to maintain production. But Sharkey, who recognizes Jennings’ exceptional year, attributes this to a massive increase in passes targeted at the young receiver. So it should come to no surprise that Jennings, who last year averaged 16.4 YPC, played in all 16 games yet saw his production drop by 179 yards and 5 TDs compared to the year before. A total decrease in roughly 47 FP! Luckily for Jennings owners, his QB is one of the best in the league at getting the ball to his top two receivers, and Jennings also happens to be a very good wide receiver. Most receivers would see their fantasy value plummet much more, as Sharkey points out.

Remember Braylon Edwards ‘06-‘07 season? 1289 yards 16 TDs, 16.1 YPC, and an estimated 224 FP. Ashley Lelie’s ‘04-‘05 season? 1084 yards, 7 TDs, 20.1 YPC, and an estimated 150 FP? And Bernard Berrian’s, pre-Brett Favre, ‘08-’09 sesaon? 964 yards, 7 TDs, 20.1 YPC, and an estimated 138 FP. Edwards dropped 119 FP, Lelie 67, and Berrian 53 (with Favre as the QB instead of Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson) FP. All saw their production drop dramatically.

So if there is one thing you want to avoid almost as much as D/ST units, it’s taking the deep threat WR that turns into a big bust. Maybe you should think twice about drafting DeSean Jackson (18.5 YPC), Vincent Jackson (17.2 YPC), and Miles Austin (16.3 YPC). I recommend staying away, unless you believe that they will see more targets (the number of times the ball is thrown in their direction) in the coming season. Instead, go after receivers whose targets (tgts) are already high, and their YPC is below 16.0, like Wes Welker (11.0 YPC and 162 Tgts), Anquan Boldin (12.2 YPC and 127 Tgts), and Santana Moss (12.9 YPC and 120 Tgts).

Now you’re equipped to deal with the middle rounds. We’ve only got the late rounds to cover and then a general draft strategy. But if you think that the drafts over before you’ve made your last pick, well, you clearly haven’t had your fill of college and professional football.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Okay, now you know how the league works and you won’t get stuck wondering why Matt Forte was taken 40 spots earlier than you expected (you can read about this explanation in Dr. Z’s Rule #1). So what do you in the first few rounds?

Rule #2: In the early rounds, don’t draft above value. This is one of the toughest rules to keep. The best way to catch yourself before falling off the deep-end is by grouping your players, according to position, into tiers of value before you draft. Group players by position according to how many fantasy points you think they will accrue throughout the season. If you believe that the points of a group of, say, five running backs will be comparable, then you group them together into a tier. Unless you are in love with a wide receiver in your third tier, don’t draft him if most of the receivers in tier 2 are still available. In this case I would question why that player is in tier three and not tier two.

If you aren’t sure how to create a tier system, a quick Google of “Fantasy Football Tier” brings up a few good places to start. The first few rounds are the most important picks of the draft because this is when the top performers are usually picked. There are a few choices: The stable, elite players, who have been there, done that, year after year: the Andre Johnsons, Adrian Petersons, and Chris Johnsons of the league; and the elite players “of new” who have had “breakout” seasons, phenomenal catches, and exciting runs: the Rashard Mendenhalls and DesSean Jacksons. Although I had Jackson on my team last year (as a mid-round addition mind you), I wouldn’t bet on him in the first two rounds, where I have seen him taken too many times this year. It is crucial to pick players who will stabilize your team (more on consistency in an upcoming column). You don’t want to rock the boat by taking a guy who could flame out. If you’re taking him because of two seasons, or fewer, of elite success, you should be questioning the pick and seriously considering someone else. It’s easy to fall into the trap and draft on hype and excitement instead of performance and value. Young “studs” like Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson, and rookie “phenoms” like San Diego Chargers RB Ryan Mathews, tend to get a lot of hype that, in my opinion, they don’t deserve. I’m not saying that they won’t have stellar, or even elite, years. But they have not earned the high pick of a first or second rounder. There are just too many question marks.

Chris Johnson is only two seasons into his NFL career yet he has already established himself as a top RB.

Last season, the Chargers had the 22nd best (read: 10thworst) run offensive line according to profootballfocus.com’s film analysis. This is not surprising given the stats. The Chargers ranked second to last in yards per game (only the Colts were worse). Their 19^th most rushing attempts per game of 26.7 averaged them 88.7 yards per game. Their only saving grace for fantasy owners was LaDainian Tomlinson’s 12 TDs, which was a result of the strong passing game. That comes out to a league worst 3.3 yards per carry. And this is with the speedy Darren Sproles and the elusive, yet aging, LT. Why would rookie Mathews fare better, at least enough to grant him a late first round or early second round pick?

As for DeSean Jackson, the man is a serious deep threat with killer speed. But his numbers are much more than likely to regress. I seriously question if he is worth the value of a first or second round pick. Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Steven Jackson, and Adrian Peterson: these are the type of guys to draft early. It’s okay if you draft three wide receivers in a row before draft a running back, just as long as the guys are solid and consistent. Being flexible with the positions you draft early while sticking to value is key.

I’ve told you what to do in the pre-draft (know everything about your league!) and what to do in the first few rounds (draft based on proven production, not hype). Look out for the next in the series in which I tell you what to do next.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Disclaimer: Dr. Z claims in no way to be a medical, dental, or any other type of physician in any way. He has also never received a doctorate. He is only considered a “doctor” in the sense that he writes to remedy your fantasy football qualms, afflictions, and maladies.

Every January, as the fantasy football season wraps up, my friends and foes always ask me, “Dr. Z, what’s your secret? How do you do it? Tell me what you know.” Ok. Maybe not. But perhaps they should. As much as I love baseball, it’s never been my forte, although I have to say I’m quite proud of my fantasy team, “Ron’s Rehab Center” which currently sits 2^nd out of 12 teams. But I’m glad that football season is finally here! And lucky for you, I’ve decided to let you in on my strategies that have consistently kept me in striking range of my league trophy year after year. I’m hoping that “Albert’s Fitness Center” can follow in the footsteps of “Donte’s Driving School” and lead me to the championship for the second straight year in my annual “Bye Bye Brett” league.

Rule #1: Know your league. If you don’t know the scoring and roster setup, then most of what I, or anyone else, tell you is practically worthless. It is extremely important to know if your roster needs 3 Wide Receivers, a second Quarterback, and possibly even a Defensive player or a flex, etc. Does your team credit receptions and rushing attempts? Or just yards and touchdowns? Do you get bonus points for touchdowns scored from longer yardage plays?

Before two-back systems became the norm, rushers dominated fantasy leagues, racking up yards and touchdowns. In 2002, ten RBs scored 10 or more TDs, with eight of the ten scoring more than 10. In the same year, eight receivers accomplished this feet. But only three of these receivers exceeded 10 TDs. The league high in rushing TDs was 27 (Kansas City Chiefs RB Priest Holmes) while the league high in receiving TDs was 17 (WR Randy Moss, playing for the Minnesota Vikings at the time). You get the point. Running backs dominated the league.

The Points Per Reception (PPR) league scoring format was created to try to keep the value of the positions balanced by adding extra value to receivers and tight ends. The scoring was exactly the same as a standard league except that each reception would be worth a certain number of points, hence the name, “Points Per Reception.” In some leagues, the added value can be as low as 0.1 ppr, but it is usually posted at 1 ppr. Now, with rushers coming out of the backfield to make catches more frequently, the added value is extended not just to the receivers and tight ends, but to the running backs as well. Running backs such as Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears, who was third in the league last season with 57 receptions for 471, is currently being drafted in standard Yahoo! Leagues at 81.8, which is roughly in the beginning of the 9^th round. But in Yahoo! PPR leagues, his average draft position (ADP) is 42.8, roughly three-and-a-half-rounds (4.8) higher!

Matt Forte's pass-catching ability increases his value in PPR formats by roughly four rounds!

But it’s not as if Forte is the only RB to catch the ball out of the backfield. Why is his value that much higher in PPR leagues? Let’s compare him to Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (64.2 ADP) and Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno (70.6 ADP). Stewart rushed for 1133 yards and 10 TDs, and caught 18 passes for 139 yards and 1 score for an estimated 198 fantasy points, FP, in standard leagues. Moreno rushed for 947 yards and 7 scores, and had 28 catches for 213 yards and 2 TDs for an estimated 169 FP in standard leagues. Forte ran for 929 yards and 4 end zone appearances, while catching 57 passes for 471 yards and no touchdowns for an estimated 163 FP in standard leagues. As we can see, Forte has the lowest fantasy numbers of the three. But in PPR leagues that award 1 point per reception, Forte gains 57 points, Stewart an additional 18, and Moreno 28 points, giving Forte the edge with 220 FP to Stewart’s 210 and Moreno’s 197. Need I say more?

It takes only a few minutes but just looking into what positions you need to draft to fill out your roster, how the points are scored, and even how many other teams are in the league, can make the difference between drafting Matt Forte in the 4^th round and wondering why he did not fall to you in the 8^th round like you were expecting.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Every year since 2005, a group of about a dozen Claremont McKenna students spend a week in San Jose where they have the opportunity to visit and network with various Silicon Valley executives at leading companies in the area. This year, students brushed shoulders with CEOs, partners, and other top management at nine companies in the Silicon Valley area. The trip, which costs ITAB over $1,800 per student, is provided free to participants.

ITAB, the Information Technology Advisory Board, is an organization of CMC-affiliated executives in the technology industry working to advance the role of technology at CMC. Since 2005, the organization has sponsored a week-long trip to Silicon Valley. The trip was started in 2005 by ITAB Chair Bart Evans ‘70.

Mr. Evans started the ITAB trip to help establish Silicon Valley as one of CMC’s “centers of gravity.” “The current centers of gravity for CMC alumni are LA, New York, DC, San Francisco,” Mr. Evans explained to the group of 15 students who attended this year’s trip. That is, CMC alumni are concentrated in a few industries and geographic areas. “The world is getting smaller—much of our country’s business is being exported, but Silicon Valley is one of the few places [in the US] where people are still creating and innovating.” Mr. Evans wants to add the technology industry, specifically Silicon Valley, to CMC’s radar.

During the trip, ITAB pays for all student expenses—a week-long stay at the Fairmont Hotel San Jose, transportation, food, and miscellaneous costs. ITAB also provides each student with calling cards (business cards), a leather-bound portfolio, and tote bags to carry the “shwag” we pick up throughout the week—an “I’m Feeling Lucky” t-shirt from Google, a chunk of Silicon rock from Applied Materials, a bottle-opener that plays the “Yahoo!” jingle, etc.

Throughout the week, students are shuttled to various companies in Silicon Valley from Apple Headquarters in Cupertino to Google Headquarters in Mountain View (plug for Google: free Naked Juices and food everywhere!). CMC Chief Technology Officer, Professor Cynthia Humes accompanies the students on the trip, as her office is responsible for planning the trip.

“It’s a lot of work to plan the trip, but we get better at it each year the program is in operation,” said Dr. Humes. “For example, we hope to visit a gaming company like Electronic Arts next year in addition to this year’s lineup of companies.”

ITAB is also actively recruiting new members to help defray the costs of the trip. “The current cost is about $1,800-$2,000 per student, with students paying for their own transportation to San Jose. We want to expand our resources to be able to pay for each student’s transportation as well,” said Humes.

The ITAB trip (and the similar Financial Economics Institute-sponsored Networking Trip) is an underutilized gem at CMC. Within days after the trip was over, students had landed interviews and even jobs at the companies visited. What one learns in an economics or computer science class makes for useful technical skills, but only opportunities like these prepare students for the real world.

My highlights from the 2008 ITAB trip:

-Presentation by Scott Mauvais ’90 at Microsoft. Mr. Mauvais gave us the down low on why Microsoft isn’t threatened by Apple and a few other “do not repeat this outside of this room” remarks. I will not repeat them. We also got to raid the company store.

-Julie Cox ’07 gave an informative presentation about what consultants, especially IT consultants, do on a day to day basis.

-Listening to John Volk ’70, Partner in the Venture Capital Group at PricewaterhouseCoopers recount his decision to go to law school (“This was nearly 40 years ago… we didn’t know what was what… Duke was the best [law school] I got into, so I jumped in a car and drove across the country.”)

-Ashwin Navin ’99, President and Co-Founder of BitTorrent delivering the keynote address at the Alumni Association-hosted ITAB Reception at the Fairmont Hotel in San Jose. In a chat with students after his speech, Ashwin recalled how cool he felt living in Auen Hall when it was the only dorm with high speed internet hookups in every room.

-Weston Presidio, a venture capital firm located on a pier in San Francisco. Jim McElwee ’74, a partner at Weston Presidio, talked about the hardships and benefits of venture capital firms.

-Todd Teresi ’94, Senior VP at Yahoo!, brought in legal and marketing experts from the company to talk to us about censorship in China, redefining Yahoo!’s brand, and other topics. I was pretty unconvinced that Yahoo! would grow or survive much longer after our visit until recently.

-Discussion with Bill MacGowan ’79, Executive Vice President, and Jonathan Schwartz, CEO of Sun Microsystem. Mr. Schwartz is a legend in Silicon Valley and his blog is one of the most widely read in the industry.

-Apple presentation by Scott Gilfoil, head of campus recruiting. Mr. Gilfoil gave us an entertaining pitch to work for Apple (and buy Apple products).

-Joe Pon ’89 and George Davis ’80 at Applied Materials. Joe Pon gave us a tour of Applied’s labs, including chip manufacturing and research clean rooms where we had to take off our shoes and wear booties. Mr. Pon also discussed our country’s energy crisis and gave me a clearer view of solar panel technology and alternative energy sources.

-A visit to Infosys in Fremont, CA convinced me to apply for an internship in Bangalore, India this summer. I guess I’ll see how that one turns out…

-Jonathan Rosenberg ’83, Senior Vice President at Google, first fanned out 15 business cards, smiled, and said “E-mail me. I WILL help you.” Mr. Rosenberg also recounted some of his favorite CMC stories and advice for success in business.