This loss to Iowa State, combined with a 34-point beatdown of rival Oklahoma, make it difficult to determine just how good Oklahoma State is.

It was a dark and stormy night. Somewhere in the world, anyway.

I, the college football enthusiast, pored over the latest edition of the BCS standings and tried to use it to rank my Nightcap Bowl Mania Confidence Page (you can register for free for a chance to win a $50 prize or T-shirt here. Fore more info, check out the facebook page). I thought about all the ways it attempts to rank teams that might never play each other. What exactly is a strong loss? How should margin of victory be adjusted for home-field advantage? What’s worse: an early loss to a team with a bad record or a late loss to equal competition? And what in the world are the agendas of the poll voters?

The list of questions is endless, and the BCS standings aim to reveal the answers. But the real question is: Who cares?

I realized that I could break down rankings as much as I liked and never uncover much. Politics and inordinate emphasis on wins and losses, rather than actual performance, would always keep me from answering the question I really care about, the one I imagine most of you would probably like answered as well. Between two teams, who’s better?

It’s all fine to compare teams by resume to determine which are most worthy of playing in better bowl games. But a team’s profile – headlined by its wins and losses – explains what has happened each time a team has stepped on the field. It’s great at predicting the past. However, there’s a lot of randomness involved in who wins and loses any given game.

I decided to create a rating system that cuts out all the garbage and is based entirely on performance. My model is built on three pillars: efficiency, tempo, and opponent strength. I crunched some numbers for every game this season between FBS teams: all 15 weeks, all 120 teams. For each game, I quantified each team’s performance by fitting it to the following scenario.

Team X played at some level against Team Y. Now they’re playing at the same level in a hypothetical game against a team that is the national average at everything, Team Z (roughly Washington State). Evaluated on a per-possession basis, how many points will Team X’s offense score on Team Z’s defense, and vice versa?

It was a fairly extensive undertaking, but I am stoked with the results. So here’s my Top 25, based entirely on performance and completely adjusted for schedule strength. All of this was analyzed game by game; I took no shortcuts. I’ve shown records here for fun, but the other numbers you will see are offensive points per 100 possessions against Team Z and points allowed on defense per 100 of Team Z’s possessions. Enjoy!

E.J. Manuel's Florida State Seminoles are much more dangerous than their 8-4 record shows.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, 7-1 SEC): 351, 44
2. LSU Tigers (13-0, 8-0 SEC): 418, 66
3. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2, 6-2 B10): 471, 155
4. Florida State Seminoles(8-4, 5-3 ACC): 292, 101
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1, 8-1 B12): 409, 144
6. Stanford Cardinal (11-1, 8-1 P12): 422, 152
7. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3, 6-3 B12): 303, 110
8. USC Trojans (10-2, 7-2 P12): 322, 129
9. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3, 7-1 SEC): 261, 107
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2, 6-2 SEC): 406, 168
11. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6, 4-5 B12): 334, 141
12. Oregon Ducks (11-2, 8-1 P12): 339, 144
13. Michigan State Spartans (10-3, 7-1 B10): 254, 110
14. Michigan Wolverines (10-2, 6-2 B10): 339, 156
15. Florida Gators (6-6, 3-5 SEC): 283, 133
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2, 7-1 ACC): 263, 127
17. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2, 6-2 SEC): 226, 113
18. Boise State Broncos (11-1, 6-1 MWC): 332, 166
19. Clemson Tigers (10-3, 6-2 ACC): 357, 181
20. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6, 2-6 SEC): 259, 132
21. Missouri Tigers (7-5, 5-4 B12): 261, 133
22. Miami Hurricanes (6-6, 3-5 ACC): 339, 179
23. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2, 7-2 B12): 320, 173
24. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3, 5-3 B10): 342, 186
25. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3, 5-2 BE): 315, 174

But this is only the beginning; with efficiency and tempo stats in hand, this model can predict future games as well. Bowl season is right around the corner, so without further ado, I present performance-based bowl predictions for 2011-12.

Never heard of Western Michigan? Don't worry; Alex Carder should sling the Broncos to a surprise victory over Big Ten foe Purdue.

• Temple 31, Wyoming 13
• Utah State 44, Ohio 35
• San Diego State 35, UL-Lafayette 27
• Florida International 29, Marshall 17
• TCU 29, Louisiana Tech 20
• Boise State 45, Arizona State 33
• Southern Miss 27, Nevada22
• Missouri 24, North Carolina 20
• Western Michigan 37, Purdue 31
• Louisville 19, NC State 17
• Toledo 35, Air Force 33
• California 31, Texas 28
• Florida State 21, Notre Dame 13
• Baylor 55, Washington 44
• BYU 38, Tulsa 28
• Rutgers 20, Iowa State 17
• Mississippi State 24, Wake Forest 20
• Oklahoma 48, Iowa 20
• Texas A&M 47, Northwestern 23
• Georgia Tech 23, Utah 21
• Vanderbilt 30, Cincinnati 20
• Illinois 24, UCLA 23
• Auburn 24, Virginia22
• Penn State 24, Houston 20

'Bama and LSU are as evenly matched as they come, but the rematch will belong to Trent Richardson and the Tide.

• Georgia 17, Michigan State 16
• South Carolina 23, Nebraska 21
• Florida 27, Ohio State 21
• Wisconsin 41, Oregon 32
• Oklahoma State 39, Stanford 38
• Michigan 24, Virginia Tech 23
• Clemson 42, West Virginia 39
• Arkansas 44, Kansas State 34
• Pittsburgh 27, SMU 12
• Northern Illinois 42, Arkansas State 29
• Alabama 11, LSU 9

We’ll be keeping track of the model’s success here at the Claremont Sports Connection and come back after bowl season with a recap. But if you can’t wait until then, or you want to show me just how wrong I am, you can lay down some picks against me and the rest of the Nightcap team! Send us an email at talk@claremontsportsconnection.com and we’ll get you set up in no time, or you can go to the google docs survey, which takes you to the ESPN Page, or go to our facebook page for more information. But remember, bowl season begins Saturday, December 17, so don’t wait! Enjoy the bowl season!

Playoff seeding:

National Football Conference: 1. Green Bay Packers, 2. New Orleans Saints, 3. Philadelphia Eagles, 4. Arizona Cardinals, 5. Detroit Lions, 6. Atlanta Falcons

The defending champion Packers will be the one seed–they return their starters and injured players from last year. The Saints with the addition of Running Back Mark Ingram will have a balanced offense this year that will out score opponents to be the number two seed. The Eagles have too much talent not to win the NFC East, but the team’s inconsistent play will hurt their record, making them the third seed.  Arizona will sneak out of the NFC west with a decent record, maybe 10-6 or 9-7 considering their relatively light schedule compared to their NFC west foes. Detroit’s offensive tandem of Quarterback Matthew Stafford, Running Back Jahvid Best, and Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson should carry the team to a wild card seeding simply by outscoring opponents.

American Football Conference: 1. Baltimore Ravens, 2. New England Patriots, 3. Houston Texans, 4. San Diego Chargers, 5. New York Jets, 6. Pittsburgh Steelers

Wild Card Round

Yes, those Cheeseheads may be looking for a repeat title, and yes, Mr. Brady, with that lavish lifestyle, hot wife, and ridiculously good-looking hair may be trying to, again, solidify his place in pro football history.

But things aren’t looking so hot for the NFL. To give you an idea of how desperate NFL analysts are for news stories, an ESPN regional blog recently released a power-ranking of, believe it or not, assistant coaches… that’s right,assistant coaches. An idea that was created, in my opinion, in “there’s-nothing-to-write-about-ville, USA.”

So why might a man or woman be deprived of the ability to wake up on Sunday and nurse a hangover while watching football?

Money. And lot’s of it. About 9.3 billion dollars.

The National Football League Players Association (NFLPA), the labor union for NFL players, has functioned as the collective bargaining unit for players with NFL owners since 1968. Since its formation, the NFLPA has undertaken multiple unsuccessful disputes: In 1982, a strike lasted 57 days into the NFL regular season. In 1987, replacement players were hired to play temporarily during a strike, inspiring the rowdy, but classic movie The Replacements.  In 1993, the NFLPA was finally able to succeed in a collective bargaining agreement which created unrestricted free-agents and a salary cap ceiling.

Since then, the 1993 agreement has been extended 5 other times.

Fast forward to 2008: NFL owners decide to opt-out of the 2006 extended agreement they signed, creating no salary cap limit for the 2010 season, and providing teams with unlimited spending.

After an extension of the expiration date of the 2006 collective bargaining agreement from March 4^th to March 11^th — an unsuccessful attempt to conclude negotiations — the NFL officially became “locked out” on March 12^th, a forceful move by owners to sway negotiations in their favor.  In other words, players are unable to be on team facilities, and are essentially inactive in routine off-season schedules which include team building activities. In response, players decided to decertify the NFLPA, claiming that they weren’t an official union, and thus, aren’t subject to a lockout. The issue moved to court under the case “Brady vs. NFL,” which has ultimately led to court-ordered mediation after various judges ruled in both the NFL and Players’ sides.

So what started the lockout in the first place?

According to ESPN’s insiders, a significant point of negotiations has been the owners’ proposed extension of the NFL season from 16 to 18 weeks. Players argue two points against the extension of a regular season. First, an increase in regular season games exposes players to greater risks for injury, and second, the owners’ proposal does not provide sufficient compensation in salary and health for prolonged work. Owners, fixed on their business’ bottom line, see the extension as a way to increase revenues and to prolong the excitement of the regular season.  At this point in negotiations, the issue has been dropped.

Both sides’ biggest disagreement—now resolved—was over revenue shares for players and owners. The owners proposed a compromise of cutting the players’ share of the NFL’s revenue from 60% to 48%– a 12% decrease, while eliminating a 1 billion dollar expense credit, a bonus the owners have previously taken from the NFL’s revenue for franchise improvements.  Players, unhappy with the reduction in revenue percentage, initially refused the offer.

Recent updates, however, indicate that an agreement has been reached between the two parties because of a new clause. Players are satisfied with a clause that would force teams to spend close to their entire salary cap; translating to higher salaries for players. NFL teams would now have to spend nearly all of their salary cap money each year on players instead of saving cap room to spend on future players, which at times, created major contract discrepancies. Players, satisfied with such a concession, have moved on to other points within negotiations.

The only major issue left unresolved according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter is a proposed rookie wage scale by owners.

The basic idea behind a rookie wage scale is for teams to pay for players who are proven, rather than risk money on unproven, hyped-up draft picks. Players have received lucrative contracts in the past before even playing a real game of football in the NFL, and at the peril of some teams, become complete busts in the league. Owners who proposed a rookie wage scale complain that rookie contracts have become too risky and expensive. The wage scale would put limits on the amount of earnings a lottery player pick could have and would cap the amount of years in a player’s contract to induce free agency. Long-term veterans who are proven commodities would receive fair payment because teams wouldn’t spend as much on draft picks. That’s not to count out the new clause that forces teams to spend their entire salary cap, which would funnel money to proven players.  Players agree with the idea of the wage scale, but currently disapprove of its “option clause” within the proposal. As of now, the deal on the table proposes 4 year contracts for first round draft picks with a fifth year “option” for a player to either stay with a team or go to free agency. Players want that “option” year to be held to pay standards of a top 10 pick, meanwhile owners want the option year to have a fixed amount of pay, contingent with the first four years.

The NFL is not the only professional sports league with lockout issues. The NBA, currently in a lockout, is in negotiations over a revenue sharing deal of the league’s annual 4 billion dollars of intake.  The league states that it currently has 22 out of 30 teams losing money, and that the previously agreed on 57%of revenue that players receive is simply too much. That’s not to forget the NHL’s 2004-2o05 lockout season where the hockey league was shutdown the whole year while owners and players fought over, again, revenue sharing—a common theme in these labor disputes.

As the NFL preseason approaches, all signs point to July 21 where a league meeting is being held as the date for a deal to be done. Timetables put that day as the last chance before NFL Preseason games will be affected by the lockout.

Hopefully, both sides can come together and, with a fair deal, provide fans with the football season they deserve.

Today, July 14, marks the 121st day of the lockout.

Want more sports articles from Han and others? Check out Han’s analysis of the Pacquiao-Mosley fight, Kevin Seefried’s article on CMC Alum Dean Taylor, Kevin Seefried’s article on Derek Jeter or Ariel Katz’s article on Intramural Sports.

Here’s a recap of CMS sports highlights for the Spring of 2011:

BASEBALL

Credit: cmsathletics.org

The Stags 4th place finish does not do them justice. They went 17-11 in SCIAC (23-17 overall), led the nation in double plays per game, and had a pitcher drafted by the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners drafted Alex Sunderland (CMC ‘11)  in the 38th round after finishing his CMS career with a 20-7 record and a 3.94 ERA. He remains humble after the news: “I couldn’t be more excited for the opportunity. I realize that not many people get a chance to play sports for a living, so I know I will make the most of it. Getting drafted has been a goal of mine for a long time and I’m so happy that all the hard work has paid off.”

The young team suffered early losses, but won nine straight games in the middle of the season to jump back into contention. Sunderland credits good defense with the team’s success: “Almost all of our lineup from last year had graduated, so a lot of young players had to step up and produce. Even though we weren’t as explosive offensively, we made up for it by playing great defense and pitching well. The double play combo of Brian Gose (CMC ‘12) and Scott Witte (CMC ‘14) up the middle played particularly well as they were largely responsible for us leading the nation in double plays turned.”

SOFTBALL

Credit: Gary Stephenson

Great sequels are rare. The Godfather II, Toy Story 2, and CMS Softball 2011. Coming off the best season in school history last year, the Athenas’ encore performance this year was even better.  The team recorded the best overall record and most wins in program history (35-12), their second consecutive SCIAC Championship and the first Back-to-Back SCIAC Championships in program history (2010, 2011). It was the Athenas’ second year in a row to earn the #1 seed/host for the SCIAC Tournament, and the most players in program history (8) earned All-SCIAC awards. Those players were Rebecca Gularte (SCR ‘12), Katerina Yale (CMC ‘11), Emily Lopez (CMC ‘12), Michelle Harvey (CMC ‘11), Megan Morris (CMC ‘12) and Amanda Banducci (CMC ‘12), Emma Friedenberg (SCR ‘12), and Harmony Palmer (CMC ‘13).

“We are always seeking to better our ‘best mark’ and we did just that,” says head coach Betsy Hipple, “to win SCIAC back-to-back years is quite extraordinary and we are proud of that achievement.  To win an elimination game at Nationals against the reigning national champions (and #3 in the nation), we are very proud of that.  To put 8 players on the All-SCIAC team, we are delighted with that.  So, our growth and development was significant this year and, I believe, will support even more success in 2012.”

MEN’S GOLF

Credit: cmsathletics.org

As Tiger Woods collapsed last year, Tain Lee (CMC ‘12) surged, winning the 2010 NCAA Division III Championship. This year, he won the conference championship tournament, was selected to first team SCIAC, All West Region, first team All-American, and placed second at the NCAA Championship. Also notable, Freshman Jordan Stein (CMC ‘14) was named to the All-SCIAC second team. Overall, CMS finished third in SCIAC, and second in the championship tournament.

As for next year, head coach Bim Jollymour is optimistic: “We are looking forward to next season returning 11 letter winners, along with incoming freshmen Ben Ho (Vancouver BC), Matt Biggar (Los Altos CA) and Phillip North (Hilton Head Island SC). Additionally we have transfer Brad Shigezawa (Northwestern) coming to CMC.”

Women’s Golf

There is big news for the Athenas: next year, Women’s Golf will officially be added to the SCIAC conference. This means that in 2012, CMS will fight for a SCIAC championship for the first time. As far as the 2010-2011 season, the team played extremely well, and had a number of noteworthy individual performances.

As a team, CMS competed in ten events. In four of those events, an Athena won. The team also recorded two 2nd place finishes, two 3rd place finishes. At the prestigious Pasatiempo Golf Club in a tournament hosted by UC Santa Cruz, CMS finished 3rd as a team.

Next year the team looks very promising, with juniors Lauren Buchanan, Brittany Isobe (CMC ’12), Emma McConville (CMC ’12), Sophmore Kristina Block (SCR ’13) and first year players Maya Reddy, Jackie Ketner, Elizabeth Diebel (SCR ’14), and Ingrid VanValkenburg (SCR ’14) all returning.

WOMEN’S LACROSSE

Credit: Joshua D

The CMS women were perfect in SCIAC play during the 2011 season, going 10-0 (just like they did last year), while finishing 16-3 overall. They won the SCIAC championship tournament, then beat the Redlands Bulldogs in the NCAA tournament’s first round, but lost to Gettysburg College (the eventual tournament champion) in the second round. The Athenas’ season included a #1 regional ranking, their second consecutive SCIAC championship, and third trip to the sweet 16 portion of the NCAA tournament.

Individually, Sarah Dick (CMC ‘11) and Madi Shove (SCR ‘13) were named 3rd team All-Americans as well as 1st team All-West Region, while Rachel Darby (SCR ‘13), Madi Shove, and Laura Hagen (CMC ‘11) were named 1st team All-SCIAC. On top of all this, Sarah Dick was also named SCIAC player of the year.

 

WOMEN’S WATER POLO

Credit: cmsathletics.org

 

CMS finished 3rd in SCIAC after going 7-3 in conference play (15-12 overall). Candace Filippelli (CMC ‘14) and Abigail Woodruff (CMC ‘11) were named 1st team All-SCIAC, while Kristina Norrgard (CMC ‘12) was awarded 2nd team All-SCIAC. Only two games behind the SCIAC champion Occidental Tigers, the Athenas fought all the way to the end, and defeated Pomona-Pitzer both times they faced them.

 

 

 

 

MEN’S TENNIS

Credit: cmsathletics.org

Stags tennis dominated once again. They won their 6th straight SCIAC title after going undefeated in conference play (27-4 overall), were highlighted in a Wall Street Journal Article about the prowess of DIII sports, and, to cap it all off, Zhenya Pereverzin (CMC ‘14) and Ronald Wu (CMC ‘11) made it all the way to the NCAA championship match, where they took second to a team from Bowdoin college. Alex Lane (CMC ‘13), Zhenya Pereverzin (CMC ‘14), and Ronald Wu (CMC ‘11) were named All-Americans, and Alex Johnson (CMC ‘13) was named 1st team All-SCIAC.

The domination doesn’t appear likely to end any time soon either. Earlier in June, tennisrecruiting.net ranked the Stags’ recruiting class the best in the nation at the Division III level. The recruits were deemed 7th best out of all mid-major schools as well, which includes schools over fifteen times its size.

WOMEN’S TENNIS

Credit: cmsathletics.org

 

If you haven’t yet heard of Kristin Lim (CMC ‘13) or Crystal Lim (CMC ‘14), you will. The unrelated underclassmen were spectacular both individually and together. As a doubles pair, the tandem was the USTA-ITA DIII Small College National Doubles Runner-up, and throughout the season ranked the #1 pair in the West.

Individually, Crystal was named the 2011 ITA National Rookie of the Year, 1st team All-SCIAC, #13 in the Western region for Singles, and, to top it off, an All-American.

Kristin Lim did it all. In addition to her doubles performance, and distinction as an All-American, she won the NCAA Division III singles title. That’s an amazing accomplishment for a sophomore, and the SCIAC player of the year admits that it wasn’t easy: “Winning the championship was I guess you could say a dream come true. From the start of the season winning the NCAA title was one of my goals but achieving it felt so hard to do. The NCAA Title motivated me to push hard and give 100% in every single practice and match. Winning the title made all my hard work and sacrificing all worth it, and I was extremely fortunate that I had my teammates, friends, and family watching me throughout the tournament. I couldn’t have asked for more.”

 

The Athenas won the SCIAC championship with a 9-1 record (21-4 overall) which is all the more impressive considering 10 of the team’s 16 players are freshmen.

MEN’S TRACK & FIELD

Credit: Craig Isaacs

After 19 years of consecutive SCIAC championships in Men’s Track and Field, the Stags’ streak ended this year, when they finished 2nd behind Redlands University. That said, CMS finished 27th in the nation, was named a USTFCCCA All-Academic Team, and yielded many outstanding individual performances.

Taylor Berliant (CMC ‘11) was named an All-American for the second time, not to mention an All-Academic Individual as well. He went to the NCAA National Championship Meet where he placed 3rd in the Hammer Throw with a throw of 202 feet, a season best. He also set the school record in the Shot Put by a foot with a toss of 55 feet 11 inches.

 

Kris Brown (CMC ‘11) was the SCIAC champion at 5,000 meters. At the NCAA National Championship meet, he ran the 10,000 meters, and took 9th out of 19 despite being seeded 17th. If your mind isn’t blown by his time of 30:45.33, you should go try running 6.2 miles at under 5 minute/mile pace and then try and say that’s not crazy.
Jeff Macdonald (CMC ‘13) ran a 48.89 in the 400m prelims to place 13th in NCAAs, Grant Hefferman (CMC ‘11) threw the Shot Put 51 feet 1.5 inches to finish 15th in the country, and Georgi Dinolov (HMC ‘11) ran the 1500m and finished in a time of 4:02.32.

WOMEN’S TRACK & FIELD

Credit: Craig Isaacs

The Athenas easily defeated the Redlands Bulldogs in the SCIAC championship meet to secure the 2011 SCIAC title. Led by All-Americans Reny Colton (CMC ‘12) and Jennifer Tavé (SCR ‘12), CMS went 6-1 in dual meet competition, culminating in three SCIAC champions: Reny Colton 100 Hurdles, Long Jump, Triple Jump; Madeleine Miller (SCR ‘11) 400 Hurdles; Koko Huang (CMC ‘13) Pole Vault.

The women were the top ranked team from the Western region heading into nationals. Eight athletes flew to Ohio to compete in the NCAA division III championship:

Reny Colton (CMC ’12) finished 7th in the Long Jump with a jump of 18 feet 4.25 inches. In Triple Jump she finished 14th after leaping 36 feet and 11.75 inches.

Jennifer Tavé finished 8th in the 10,000m in a time of 36:21.98 and the next day ran the 5,000m in 18:31.08. In other words, after running 6.2 miles at 6-minute pace, she slept, ate, cured cancer, then came back and ran 3.1 more miles in 6:10 pace.

Freshman Ellyn Erving placed 20th in the Long Jump with a jump of 17 feet 1.25 inches. She also jumped 36 feet 7 inches in the Triple Jump.

Madeleine Miller finished the 400m hurdles in 1:03.05, while Laura Sauvage (CMC ’14) the 5000m in 18:31.08.

Also, new coach Kendra Reimer was named West Region Women’s Coach of the Year and Jason Romero was named West Region Women’s Assistant Coach of the Year by The United States Track & Field/Cross Country Coaches Association. Next year CMS will host the NCAA National Championship Meet.

 

Want more articles by Nathan Falk? You may also enjoy his article on David Brooks’s visit to Scripps, his piece on the CMC Trailers, or his GOP Political Report Card.