Despite his numerous accolades and awards, Tain remains refreshingly humble.

Lee led the field from the start, shooting a 7-under first round, tied for the tournament round-low. He held the lead until the 6th hole of the final round. A back-and-forth battle ensued between Lee and Ching, each trading birdies and bogies. Ching retook control after birdieing the 16th. Lee’s errant tee shot on 17 into the water practically sealed the victory for Ching.

“I had a funny mix of emotions after the tournament,” Lee said. “If you would have told me before the tournament that I was going to finish in second at that event I would have told you that you were kidding yourself.  At the same time I couldn’t help to be frustrated to come that close and not win.”

Leading up to the tournament, Lee felt the pressure as the lone Division III representative. “I would be lying if I said I didn’t have a little more to play for than my competitors,” Lee told the Forum, ”In the last couple of years I have been fortunate enough to accomplish what I have. However, I do feel like my ability has been questioned because I have accomplished what I have, but at the D-III level.” Last year, Lee captured the individual title at the Division III National Championship in his second appearance.  Additionally, Lee received the 2010 Jack Nicklaus Award as the Golf Coaches Association of America Collegiate Player of the Year for his consistent high-level of play throughout the year.  “Before the tournament, I definitely had some anxiety, wondering how I would match up against the best in the world of amateur and college golf.  To play as well as I did means a lot to me.”

At the close of last year, Lee mulled over his transfer acceptance to Cal. The San Juan Capistrano native wanted to prove his worth at the D-I level. But Lee had second thoughts and changed his mind, returning to CMC this fall. “I realized the importance of getting a great CMC education and gaining a well-rounded college experience and education rather than only pursuing golf and really putting my education on the back burner,” said Lee, ”Yes, I would say that this tournament validates my decision to come back to CMC. It felt good to represent D-III the way I did.”

Lee and his Stags golf get back to action February 4. Last season, the Stags earned the third best score in the SCIAC Championships despite two SCIAC Invitational wins over all 7 other conference teams. But the Stags return three of its top scorers in Tain Lee, Michael Liu (CMC ’12), and Ryan Irish (CMC ’13). The team heads into the season ranked 10th by the Golf World/Nike Coaches Preseason Poll.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Is the high-level of play worth the extracurricular activities?

What do Terrell Owens, Steve Smith (CAR), Chad Ochocinco, and Randy Moss all have in common? Besides the fact that they are all loud, obnoxious, abrasive, and attention-seekers? And that they are among the best receivers of the decade, with the exception of Smith, perhaps of all time? None of the four have won a Super Bowl.

Yes, these players excel on the field. Combined, the four receivers total 14 All-Pro seasons, 23 Pro-Bowl selections, and an average of 72 receptions per year for 1082 yards and at least 9 TDs. Randy Moss leads the league with 23 TD receptions in one season (albeit with 4 more games than Jerry Rice). Ochocinco is the Bengals franchise leader in receptions and yards and TD receptions . Steve Smith, barring major injury, within the next season or two will surpass Muhsin Muhammad, in the same categories mentioned for Ochocinco, for his Panthers. And Terrell Owens is 2nd all time in career yards receiving behind all-time great Jerry Rice. These guys are good.

But are they good where and when it counts? Combined, the four only have 2 Super Bowl appearances, both for a loss. The Bengals (66-84-1) and Panthers (73-78) have losing records in the 10 seasons (c0unting the current one) Chad Ochocinco and Steve Smith have played for their respective teams. Moss’ (110-89) and T.O.’s (134-97) teams have compiled winning records. But if you take away Moss’ time with the Pats (73-78), or just the undefeated regular season (94-89), Randy’s record isn’t nearly as impressive as at first glance.

Maybe you can blame these records on poor teams. Randy Moss played two seasons for an Oakland squad that won a combined 6 games during the receiver’s tenure. Since the 2002 season, Oakland has failed to register more than 5 wins in a single season, with or without Moss. Steve Smith rode the bench for much of his rookie year. The Panthers won 1 game that year. The next year, Smith led the team in receiving yards with 872 and the team improved to 7-9.  After T.O. left the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFC Conference Champs scraped by with a 6-10 record while Owens’ Cowboys saw two playoff appearances in his stint in Dallas. Ochocinco was seen as part of the core of the team that brought Cincinnati from the bottom of the league to 2005 AFC North Division Champs.

But the truth is that these individuals perform as individuals while take away from the rest of the team. How many times have quarterbacks had to answer reporters’ questions regarding T.O.’s latest comment or celebration? How many times has Randy Moss’ obsession with himself torn apart a team and forced them to trade the disgruntled player? When will Chad Ochocinco stop talking and tweeting and win some games? How many times will Steve Smith punch a teammate in the face?

Now don’t get me wrong. As a Patriots fan, I loved 2007. It seemed like all Tom Brady had to do was loft the ball up in the air and Moss would come down with it for a touchdown. But I also cringed knowing that it changed the offense to a team dependent on a high-risk, high-reward, narcissist who could lash out at any time. It didn’t and doesn’t matter if the team is winning or not. If the player isn’t happy, there’s a problem that the team needs to fix. A problem that will fester, grow, and tear apart and ruin any semblance of team chemistry.

Take Randy Moss. Last year, his Patriots won the AFC East. But throughout the season, he wasn’t happy. It seemed like he quit on his teammates and took plays, even quarters off.  One of Moss’ defenders certainly seemed to think so. Oakland Raiders coaches also accused the receiver of “playing when he wanted to play” and not for the full 60 minutes. Moss stated that he expected 2010 to be his last season in New England. He claimed he wasn’t receiving the respect he deserved. He said a lot of things. And now that he is passed around like a community bicycle, now that he is reminded how not every team runs its operations like championship teams such as the New England Patriots, he has to regret his decision to speak out. Luckily (for me and other Pats fans), Moss was shipped out before he infected others in New England. And don’t forget that this wasn’t Moss’ first such clubhouse crisis. He was traded after his 2004 season with the Minnesota Vikings for similar issues. I can’t say I am terribly surprised the Vikings have rebuilt there time without a similar headache (only to have it come crashing down with Brett Favre). I can’t say I am surprised the Patriots haven’t missed a step since trading away what some said was a critical piece to their offense.

But Moss isn’t the only shy one. T.O. has been known to speak out. In 2004, T.O. signed with the Philadelphia Ealges (although, not without a controversy. What a surprise!) QB Donovan McNabb took to T.O. immediately and the two propelled the Eagles to the Super Bowl before falling short to the Patriots. T.O. thought it would be wise to voice his criticism of McNabb stating McNabb choked, couldn’t win, and voiced concerns of the QB’s fitness. But that wasn’t it! Owens also demanded a new contract….one year after renegotiating for a 7 year deal. The problems for Philly persisted throughout the season. No one was surprised when, after 7 games, Owens’ never-ending remarks forced the Eagles to suspend the receiver for, what ended up being, the rest of the season. The nightmare ride ended for the Eagles when the receiver was released.

T.O. cares more that you have your popcorn ready than his team wins

Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys, decided his team needed another migraine receiving threat. Jones brought Owens in from the cold. T.O. excelled with the accurate Tony Romo throwing his way. But, T.O. seemed jealous of the Romo-Jason Witten connection. Owens whined, cried, and complained about Dallas’ strategy and use of the narcissist. Should it have surprised us that Owens, one of the best receivers to have played the game, was released from the Cowboys after the 2008 season? And should it have surprised us that the Cowboys excelled the next season? The ‘Boys finished 11-5 and won a playoff game before falling to the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Playoff Round.

I could go on. When it comes down to it, these players don’t care about winning. They care about themselves. And this tears teams apart. But maybe Jeff Fisher, head coach of the Tennessee Titans, will find a way. After all, T.O., Moss, Smith, and Ochocinco all have put together fine individual seasons. But expecting them to keep their head down, play the game, and win just isn’t what they do. If T.O. is not the center of attention something is wrong. If the ball is thrown to Wes Welker more than Randy Moss, there is a problem. If Steve Smith doesn’t like how a teammate’s face looks, he’ll be kind enough to rearrange it. If Chad Ochocinco wants to prepare for one of the biggest games of his career, he’ll buy a truck. What’s most important to these guys is that your eyes are on them. Don’t get me wrong. I love to watch personalities play the game. They provide some extra fun that Roger Goodell is seemingly trying to stamp out. I look forward to Ochocinco and his antics. But I’m with the coach on this one. When it comes to my team, I don’t want to see a Moss or T.O. suiting up for me. Either way, I’ll be sure to get my popcorn ready!

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, made up of a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in live online every Monday from 8-10 PM or podcasted at any time from their website. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Running Back

Shonn Greene (NYJ) 23.1 ADP, 100% Drafted: The Jets ran the ball 607 times last year. The next team ran 525 times. The Jets offensive line is the same as last year. Need I say more? Well, I will anyway. In the three games last season that Greene touched the ball more than 19 times, he ran for at least 128 yards every time. He scored every game. Two of those games were in the playoffs. Why do people think Ryan Mathews and Greene are equivalent in fantasy potential? Beats me.

As long as Jahvid Best doesn't try to flip over the defense, the Lions running back could be the steal of fantasy drafts across the nation

Jahvid Best (DET) 65.4 ADP, 100% Drafted: Kevin Smith, the starter the previous two years, always produced when he was healthy. The team is better, offensively, than the past two years. Lions Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan hates timeshares. But best of all, head coach Jim Schwartz loves Best. I mean, he really loves him: “Some people watch adult videos on their computer,” Schwartz told [Yahoo! sports writer Brad Evans]. “I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips. That’s what gets me going.”

Matt Forte (CHI) ADP 45.7, 100% Drafted: Forte is expected to share the ball with Chester Taylor. But don’t be fooled by this, or Forte’s poor season last year. He has fully recovered, from an MCL strain sustained in a week 3 victory last season, after undergoing knee surgery. Forte has looked like his old self in preseason. Remember when he got taken back in the first round? Yeah, he’s not going to be that good, but close enough. Take him a round earlier than he is expected to go for your 2nd RB.

LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ) 104.2 ADP 48% Drafted: I project fantasy RBs mostly on two factors: the offensive line and the RBs chance for touches. Check and check. The Jets have one of the best o-lines, in both rushing and passing. And, shall I say it again? 607 rushes. 607. I don’t care Shonn Greene is the starter. Give Greene 350 carries and look how many LT still has. Yeah. I know.

LeSean McCoy (PHI) 38.1 ADP, 100% Drafted: Younger Brian Westbrook. Expect similar numbers as Westbrook during his pre-concussion years. If you draft McCoy, hope Jon Runyan isn’t around.

Jerome Harrison (CLE) 76.2 ADP, 100% Drafted: With Montario Hardesty out for the season, only Peyton Hillis remains a serious threat to Harrison’s touches per game. Expect Harrison to take over and produce enough to start in deep leagues.

Carnell “Cadillac” Williams (TB) 120.9 ADP, 20% Drafted: With the release of Derrick Ward (now signed by Houston), Williams is the clear cut #1. However, he is an injury concern and high-maintenance player (in that you must watch his games in case he gets injured). Keep an eye on Earnest Graham and Kareem Huggins who will take over in the event that the Cadillac breaks down and stops running. If you draft the Cadillac, you should also consider keeping jumper cables in the trunk.

Tight End

Owen Daniels (HOU) 111.6 ADP, 100% Owned: Why Daniels is the 11th chosen TE in ESPN leagues completely baffles me. People quickly forget simple facts. Like the fact that Owen Daniels led all TEs in fantasy points after the first 8 weeks of last season. He had racked up 519 yards and 5 TDs before sustaining a season-ending ACL tear in November. Daniels has been cleared to play, and besides the opener (which he may or may not be eased into depending on Coach Gary Kubiak), should return to the Texans’ version of Antonio Gates. The only difference is that this guy is going 5 rounds later.

Zach Miller (OAK) 112.3 ADP, 99% Drafted: It seems like the hype has finally left the building. After years of “should be” and “could be,” fantasy owners are sick and tired of putting up with Miller’s inconsistencies and under-performance. But now with Jason Campbell as the QB and not JaMarcus Russell (but you still shouldn’t blame Russell. It’s not his fault.) Now is the perfect time to hop on the empty wagon. If you missed out on a TE, you can wait until the closing rounds to take Miller.

Rob Gronkowski (NWE) N/A ADP, 6.7% Owned: He has caught a TD pass in all three preseason games he has played. In the past two weeks in which he played with Brady and the rest of the first team, Gronkowski caught 7 passes for 104 yards and 3 TDs. The only thing holding him back is veteran Alge Crumpler, another rookie TE, Aaron Hernandez, and Coach Bill Belichick’s affinity for multiple TE sets. He is worth a flier if your TE goes down or flat out stinks in the first few weeks.

Kicker
No such thing as a “sleeper” kicker. See Rule #5.

Busts

Running Back

Ryan Mathews (SD) 25 ADP, 100% Drafted: San Diego ran for 3.3 yards per carry last year. Vincent Jackson is out. That means defenses can add a player to the box to help stop the run. I know Mathews is fast, great between the tackles, and can catch out of the backfield. But really? He’ll be lucky to crack the top 20 RBs and will only do so if Head Coach Norv Turner has to turn to him loose for 350 carries and a disproportionate number of Red Zone carries, risking injury later in his career. Don’t expect Norv to be so foolish.

Any New England RB (specifically Laurence Maroney): I have been guilty of drafting the likes of Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney before. But not again! As much as I love the Patriots, I can’t stand their backfield for fantasy purposes. Belichick will spread the carries among BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and Zack Morris. Just when you think you’ve got the coach figured out, he’ll switch it up on you. Trust a Pats fan and don’t bet on any of them.

To all you fantasy owners out there, good luck. And may the best teams win.

With Vincent Jackson holding out and nowhere to be found, Malcom Floyd has the opportunity for a breakout seasaon.

Whether you drafted, or are part of those select few leagues that have yet to draft, there are a bunch of players who can either be traded for cheap, picked up from the free agent pool, or snatched up late in the draft. I’ll tell you which dark horses and sleepers (Zzzzs) to buy and which busts to sell and avoid. I’ve placed the players according to how much more I value them compared to where, on average, they are being selected in the draft. These predictions rely a lot on gut feelings, but don’t take them lightly.

Zzzzzs

Quarter Back

Carson Palmer (CIN) 101. 7 ADP, 91.7% Drafted: While Palmer is being drafted regularly, he is usually the last QB drafted. He won’t score among the top 5 Fantasy QBs, but he could get close. He’s a far better choice than Jay Cutler (interceptions, receiver issues, and interesting protection schemes), Eli Manning (receiver and running game issues), and Donovan McNabb (serious injury concern) who are all being chosen, on average, before Palmer. With Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens as a one-two punch and Andre Caldwell as the third receiver, Palmer should see a resurgence like he did before his knee injury.

Joe Flacco (BAL) 90.4 ADP, 100% Drafted: The Ravens brought in receivers Anquan Boldin, Donte’ Stallworth (broken foot. Will be back after week 8), and just-signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh to greatly strengthen the receiving corps. Boldin is strong and can catch the ball over the middle as well as on the outside. Stallworth, once healthy will help relieve the aging Derrick Mason on the deeper routes. Houshmandzadeh will hopefully get in to run the slot as effectively as he did in Cincinnati. While the Ravens have a strong running game in RB Ray Rice and a great offensive-line in front, Baltimore didn’t wheel and deal for the three receivers for nothing (and don’t forget Rice’s ability to catch out of the backfield). Expect the accurate and good-decision-making Flacco to see more pass attempts, yards, and TDs, propelling, the, on average, 12th chosen fantasy QB to finish the year  just behind the top 5 fantasy QBs.

Wide Receiver

Malcom Floyd (SDG) 92.7 ADP, 97% Drafted: I don’t understand why this guy is going so low. His numbers (% Deep, size, speed, and Catch %) are all right on with Vincent Jackson, who looks to hold out until he is drafted or for the entire season. Floyd has been promoted to #1 on the depth chart and QB Phillip Rivers and Floyd have developed a strong connection. Look for Floyd to build on this and develop into a legitimate #2 or #3 fantasy receiver and jump over the 15 receiver slots that are currently taking other WRs ahead of him.

Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 147.7 ADP, 22.3% Owned: Quick question: who made whom, Jake Delhomme or Steve Smith (CAR)? Who knows? Incidentally,  Delhomme’s best year (3886 yards passing, 29 TDs, and 15 INTs) was when Smith was out and injured with a broken leg which he suffered in the opening game of the 2004-2005 season.  Smith broke into elite-status the very next year. Expect Mohamed Massaquoi, who showed promise during his rookie season, to pleasantly surprise you and put-up points worthy of a fantasy starter.

Mike Williams (TB) 134.0 ADP, 43.6% Owned: Williams is the #1 WR. Both Josh’s like to pass to him. You can snag Williams late. Need I say more? If I do, go back and read Rule #6.

Chris Chambers (KC) N/A ADP, 10.7% Owned: Chambers’ numbers are surprisingly good in Kansas City, both with and without Dwayne Bowe in the mix. Yes, Bowe is the official #1, but Chambers will get plenty of looks. Bowe is a risk at the 52nd pick, whereas Chambers is a steal 8 rounds later.

Laurent Robinson (STL) 139.4 ADP, 33.4% Owned: Sam Bradford looks good enough to give Robinson the catches and yards to be relevant. It’s too bad Donnie Avery went down with a season-ending ACL tear. Hopefully Mark Clayton can step into a starting job and help take away coverage from Robinson. For more reasons, see Rule #6.

Devin Aromashadu (CHI) 126.5 ADP, 99% Drafted: He would be higher on my value board if so many others didn’t think along the same lines. Or if Jay Cutler wasn’t being sacked every other play. Either way, Aroma and Cutler seemed to start a good thing in the last 4 weeks of last season (22 receptions for 282 yards and 2 TDs).

Lee Evans (BUF) 108.2 ADP, 98% Drafted: Seems to alternate between a good year and bad year. Last year was a bad year. Worth a flier if in need of a receiver depth.

Jabar Gafney (DEN) 136.1 ADP, 16.6% Owned: Robinson, Laurent. Don’t draft unless in leagues larger than 12.

Chaz Schilens (OAK) N/A ADP, 20.3% Owned: Schilens has a broken foot and will miss the first two games. With Jason Campbell at the helm and Schilens as #1, Chaz is fantasy relevant. If you want or need depth at WR, use Louis Murphy while Schilens is out and pick Chaz up out of the free agent pool when he returns.

Busts

Quarter Back

Jay Cutler (CHI) 86.3 ADP, 100% Drafted: Why do people still think Cutler is fantasy worthy? The guy has no proven receivers. No “go-to guys.” He likes to throw the ball. To the other team’s players. Actually, he’s the best at that. And in case you are a Chicago fan, I don’t have any good news for the Bears QB situation, but I do have a funny song.

Tony Romo (DAL) 37.4 ADP, 100% Drafted: Romo doesn’t have the best pass o-line in front of him (ranked 25th by profootballfocus.com), but he does have many talented targets to throw to. I think Romo will end up in the top 10 among fantasy QBs, but just barely. I hate to make judgments based on preseason, but the Cowboys passing game has looked non-existent and out of sorts. With Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant to throw to, I don’t really know how it can go wrong. Which is why I am advising only a cautionary bust alert.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson (PHI) 28.5 ADP, 100% Drafted: New quarterback, questionable o-line with the absence of both Andrews’ brothers (Stacy traded to Seattle while Shawn was not re-signed and joined the New York Giants), and Rule #4. History and statistical analysis points towards a decrease in production that is more in line with a pick two to three rounds later.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) 16.5 ADP, 100% Drafted: A few weeks ago, I began writing an article on why, this year, I would not touch Larry Fitzgerald with a stick. New Quarterback (Don’t get me wrong, Derek Anderson is good when he’s good. But when he’s bad, he’s atrocious), departure of Anquan Boldin, and a clear transition in the Cardinals’ coaching style from a pass-first to a run-first offense. Worst of all, Fitz is battling a knee strain and has yet to see preseason play. If the knee is not fully healed by the time he returns, don’t be surprised to see him more often than not, on the sideline and not the field.

Don’t worry, I’ll have my Running Back and Tight End busts and sleepers out soon.

The draft is winding down. “Only four more rounds to go. C’mon, c’mon, c’mon. Make your pick!” You’re yelling at the team currently drafting, one spot in front of you. “I wonder what I’m going to do for lunch.” You catch yourself with these thoughts running through your head but don’t think twice. Little do you know that this could be the difference between first, and, well, not first. As Reese Bobby so eloquently put it, “if you ain’t first, you’re last.”

Who will be this year's Jamaal Charles?

Rule #6: Don’t be afraid of the St. Louis Rams. Or the Detroit Lions. Or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Or the Kansas City Chiefs. I think you get the point. Don’t stay away just because a team had a bad record (5-11 or worse) or a terrible offense the year before. A few of these teams made significant moves in the offseason: the Washington Redskins (4-12) traded for veteran Quarter Back Donavan McNabb. The Cleveland Browns (5-11) signed QB Jake Delhomme. Some of these teams added impact players through the draft. Detroit traded up to get running back Jahvid Best and the Bucs snagged Mike Williams. I could go on. But, for the most part, these teams still stink (ok, the Redskins have a chance). I don’t think anyone, besides a few disillusioned St. Louisans who only remember the days of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” is predicting the Rams to win the Super Bowl, let alone get to the playoffs. Heck, I’d be impressed if they can get more than 4 wins. But that doesn’t mean that the players on the team are worthless and undraftable.

If anything, this makes these players all the more draftable. Steven Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew are just a few elite players, in case you forgot which teams they are on, that play on a team that won 5 games or fewer in the 2008-2009 season. MJD finished 3^rd among fantasy running backs, and Jackson finished 10^th. In Jackson’s fourth year, his Rams won three games, five fewer than the year before, but he put up his best numbers (1528 rushing yards, 806 yards receiving, and 16 total TDs).

However, it’s not just the elite players that can succeed in such an environment. Jamaal Charles was the 2^nd string running back for the Chiefs for the first half of the season until struggling starter Larry Johnson practically asked the Chiefs to show him the door. Charles took advantage of the opportunity and finished the season as the 12^th best fantasy running back in the league. In the last eight weeks of the season (from weeks 10-17 in which Charles was the premier back), the man rushed for an astounding 968 yards on 161 carries for an average of 6.01 yards per carry, and 121 rushing yards per game. In most leagues last year, Charles was either taken in the last few rounds (like in my league), or not at all.

Now, before we get too carried away with Charles’ numbers, we have to remember that he faced mostly terrible run defenses. 5 of his 8 opponents ranked 26^th or worse in run defense, according to Yahoo! statistics. But there is good news (besides the fact that I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by switching to Geico), In weeks 11, 12 and 16, in which he faced the Pittsburgh Steelers, ranked 3^rd against the run, the San Diego Chargers, ranked 20^th in rush-defense, and the Cincinnati Bengals, ranked 7^th against the run, Charles scored 12, 20.7, and 12.4 points, respectively. If we assume that Jamaal Charles continues a reasonable 12 point production over the course of a 16-week season, he ends with 192 points, good enough for the 9^th best fantasy running back in the league! It’s too bad for fantasy owners interested in drafting Charles, the Chiefs went out and signed top-notch veteran Thomas Jones. Jones was the 5^th best fantasy back last year amassing 1402 rushing yards and 14 TDs while playing with the New York Jets, for a total of 221 fantasy points. Expect Jones and Charles to split the carries, with Charles getting a bigger load, but Jones receiving more Red Zone duties, severely cutting into Charles’ value.

Unfortunately, there isn’t always a Jamaal Charles every year. But there are many players that can be snagged, like Charles, in the last few rounds, and end up contributing to your team in big ways. Most of these picks are based more on feeling than stats, because these are low-risk, high-reward players. They are being taken at the bottom of the draft for a reason: they simply haven’t performed consistently.

When I look for Quarterback sleepers, I look for three things: accuracy (completion %), decision making (interceptions), and the players around him. For the most part, you can get by with stats. Exhibit “A” is Carson Palmer, QB for the Cincinnati Bengals, who is currently being drafted 105^th, in ESPN standard leagues, as the 15^th QB. Palmer has the 7^th best offensive line, according to profootballfocus.com’s Neil Hornsby, including the 6^th best passing line and 8^th best rushing line. Many seem to forget the three years preceding Palmer’s knee injury when he passed on average for 4001 yards, 29 TDs, 15 Ints, and a 65% completion percentage (for comparison, top fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers, completed 64.7% of his passes in ‘09). That’s good enough for roughly 246 points, which would have put him as the 9^th best fantasy QB in the league. I think he can do even better than that while keeping his interceptions at a more than acceptable number. While Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are aging, they are two best friends locked in competition (T.O. joined Ochocinco on Chad’s “The Bachelor” style show, “Ultimate Catch” in which T.O. acted as Chad’s friend and confidant.) I am convinced this will push them to have better than expected years. Antonio Bryant, who is not yet 30, was brought in to bring another veteran to the receiving corps, and third-year receiver Andre Caldwell, add great depth. If you miss out on any of the top QBs, remember that you can fall back on Palmer in the late rounds to provide you with adequate fantasy points.

The best sleeper running backs are the ones that are the primary backs. This seems like an obvious statement, but I am still scratching my head, wondering why Carnell “Cadillac” Williams is being drafted, on average, with the 112.9 pick. Yes, the Tampa Bay offensive line is atrocious, ranking 31^st in the run last season, but Williams still managed over 1,000 total yards (821 of them coming from the run). With the addition of Mike Williams (more on him later), the Tampa Bay offense will hopefully move to a more balanced, two-dimensional game. This will make defenses cover more against the pass, and take a defender or two out of “the box”. The Luxury Sedan was able to get the yards (his yardage stats were similar to 19^th best Pierre Thomas), but not the TDs, costing him those precious few points that separates the starters from the bench warmers. If Williams can get a few more TDs next season, he will turn into an instant fantasy starter.

I always find myself telling a friend, “someone has to catch the ball, right?” Right. Someone has to, and almost always, someone does. So why is it that countless #2 receivers are being picked over clear-cut #1s? I mean, I understand why you would take Wes Welker over anyone on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Mike Williams is being drafted on average with pick 144.6! He has impressed in his first two games and in now the number one receiver on the team (which isn’t saying much, but still). Williams will see enough targets to give him fantasy value. He probably won’t break into the top-20, but as one of your late fliers, he’s just one of the many WRs worth a shot.

Not satisfied with my late-round picks? Don’t worry. Be happy. Dr. Z’s Zzzzzs (Sleepers) and Busts will be out soon to give you more late-round fire power.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Rule #5: KAGNOF. An acronym I am stealing from one of my favorite, and funniest, fantasy baseball blogs, Razzball.com, KAGNOF is similar to Razzball’s term SAGNOF: “Saves Ain’t Got NO Face” (and also “Steals Ain’t Got NO Face,” but the latter is more common). In this case, my term is Kickers Ain’t Got NO Face (I know, I’m very creative and original. What can I say?).

KAGNOF. 10 points to the first who can tell me the name that goes along with this face, and the team he played for.

KAGNOF simply means that all kickers are pretty much the same. They are valuable only in that they are the ones chosen by their NFL team to go out and kick an oblong ball between two uprights, spaced 18 feet and 6 inches apart, and 10 feet off the ground.

I tried to find a single statistic that could determined the fantasy success of a kicker. Many “experts” advise drafting kickers on a strong offensive team that moves the ball and racks up yards. The logic follows that teams that can move the ball downfield will get the ball in the kicker’s range more often, leading to more field goal attempts. More field goal attempts will result in a higher number of successful conversions and higher fantasy points. If the team moves the ball into the end zone for a TD, than the kicker will get one point for the extra point. Either way, the kicker scores fantasy points. The main problem with this theory is that it does not account for teams with strong defenses that force turnovers and put their team in good field position. Since good field position, by definition, means fewer yards for the offense to travel to the end zone, these teams often don’t rank very high in yards per game. But on these teams, the ball is in the kicker’s range more often (because of the good field position) leading to a higher number of attempts. And, just like before, a higher number of attempts results in a higher number of successfully converted field goals.

New York Jets and their kicker Jay Feely are a perfect case of my point. The Jets ranked 20^th among all offenses, averaging 321 yards per game, compared to the top-ranked New Orleans Saints, who compiled on average 403.8 yards/game. The Jets defense however, was tops in the league, allowing a stingy 252.3 yards/game and 14.8 points per game, both stats leading the league in their respective category. Feely meanwhile, finished 5^th among fantasy kickers, only 26 points behind the top scorer, which comes out to a difference of 1.7 points per week. Not much. Seems like this theory is as consistently correct as Martin Gramatica’s ability to safely celebrate after a successful field goal conversion.

As long as Lucy from Peanuts or Tony Romo is not the holder, almost any Kicker will suffice.

Another idea that floats out there wildly, like a Mike Vanderjagt field goal attempt during the playoffs, is that kickers on teams that score more points per game, instead of just racking up meaningless yards, benefit from the high scoring, which transfers over to fantasy points. Either the kicker contributes by kicking field goals or extra points. It would seem to follow that kickers that kick more extra points, and are therefore on high octane offenses, would also translate to fantasy success. But fantasy games are usually not won on extra points, which are only worth one point each, but instead by long field goals of 50-plus yards, or multiple, shorter, field goals. But teams that score touchdowns are more likely to lead in the scoring category without giving their kicker a chance to score tons of fantasy points. In fact, last year, four of the top ten fantasy kickers were on teams that were ranked outside of the top ten in points per game. Three of the four, Rob Bironas of the Tennessee Titans, Jay Feely of the New York Jets, and Matt Prater of the Denver Broncos, were ranked 16^th or worse (16^th, 17^th, and 19^th respectively). Bironas scored the 4^th highest fantasy points among kickers while Prater and Bironas were tied for 5^th. Similarly, In 11 games, temporary New Orleans Saints place kicker John Carney had as many point afters as fantasy leading kicker, Nate Kaeding, of the San Diego Chargers, had in all 16 games. In those eleven weeks, Carney scored a total of 87 fantasy points, an average of 7.9 points per week. An average that, extrapolated out to cover a full season, would give him roughly 126 points, good enough for 9^th among fantasy kickers. Carney was eventually replaced by the 22 years-younger Garret Hartley, who finished with very similar statistics as Carney. Hartley scored 32 fantasy points in his five games. If you add Hartley’s points in 5 games, and Carney’s points in 11 games, to make a full, 16 game, season, the Saints kickers’ fantasy total comes out to 122 points, tied with Pittsburgh Steelers’ Jeff Reed for 10^th. Not great for the team that lead the league in TDs and extra point attempts (the Saints also did not attempt a single 2 point conversion in the 2009 regular season). Like Vanderjagt’s attempt, this idea didn’t have much of a chance from the moment it left the ground.

But it really doesn’t matter that I was not able to find a reliable stat to predict the success of fantasy kickers. Last season, the #1 fantasy kicker, Nate Kaeding, finished with 155 points. The worst starting kicker, or the #10 fantasy kicker, was Jeff Reed, who scored 122 points. The difference between the two is 33 points. Last year the difference between the best and 10^th best was an even smaller 25 points. In 2007 and 2006, just 37 and 31 points respectively. This is even smaller than the difference in Defenses and Special Teams (D/ST), which I wrote about in Rule #4.

The only reliable indicator of fantasy kicking success is that the kickers that had the highest number of successful field goals tended to be ranked among the top fantasy kickers. A real surprise! Right? There are just too many variables at play to find a reliable predictor for the following season. How can you predict which team will give their kicker the opportunities to successfully kick more field goals? We ruled out teams with strong offenses, both in yardage and scoring. Perhaps strong defenses, like the Jets? Nope. That was one of the least reliable indicators I examined.

But not only do you have to predict a statistic for a team, you also have to factor in the value of each tier of kick. In ESPN standard leagues, a kick under 39 yards is 3 points, a kick between 40 and 49 yards is worth 4 points, and a kick over 50 yards is worth 5 points. And it’s not rare to see those values vary. Additionally, a field goal missed, at any distance, is -1 points. With all that in mind, it’s practically impossible to correctly predict kickers’ fantasy numbers.

Therefore, the top 10 kickers (you, or anyone else in your league, would be crazy to draft more than one kicker, or maybe just unprepared and unknowledgeable like this guy), are almost equivalent, so why waste a pick by taking a kicker before the last round? I don’t care what your buddy says about how many times the Minnesota Vikings are going to get into the Red Zone with the gun-slinger back in purple and leading them down the field. KAGNOF! Draft them with your last pick. Always. Or if you’ve made a mistake earlier in the draft and see a steal, don’t draft a kicker at all: grab the “steal” and pick up the booter in free agency before week one. In case you still doubt me, I’m not alone.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Now you know not to gamble on a defense (click here to read Rule #3). But I still haven’t answered your question. Should you go for the deep bomb threat of DeSean Jackson? Or do you choose the consistent Wes Welker?

Rule #4: Avoid the Home Run Hitter! Consistency is Critical. The season is short – only 16 games (compare that to 82 in basketball and hockey, and 162 in baseball). It’s nice to have a guy who you can depend on, plug into your lineup and not have to worry about the matchups, whether it’s home or away, on grass or turf. Players who perform season in and season out, game in and game out, can anchor a team.

When I look for consistency, I ignore everything but yards. TDs depend too much on circumstance and vary from season to season. It’s very difficult to predict the difference between 13 TDs and 10, the difference between three deep passes caught, or three long runs broken off, and also the difference between the league leaders in TD receptions, Vernon Davis and Randy Moss, and #s 7-9, Brandon Marshall, Dallas Clark, and Reggie Wayne.

Then Cleveland Browns WR Braylon Edwards, now of the New York Jets, is just one WR who has fallen prey to the inconsistencies of the deep pass

In earning my doctorate of fantasy football, I researched to confirm what I have for so long followed as just a hunch. I looked, for each year, at the top-ten touchdown (TD) receiving players over the past five years (from the 2005-2006 season to the 2009-2010 season). I ended up with 44 players, a combination of receivers and tight ends, over the 5 individual years, of which 5 retired before the ‘09-‘10 season, and 1, Greg Jennings, was a rookie before the ‘05-‘06 season. I threw these six out of the set and used the data for the 38 others. Just over a third (13 of the 38) of the receivers was in the top-ten for two of the five years. Of those 13, 11 of these players had their two year-stints in back-to-back years. 6 of these 13 (or 6 of 38) reached the top-ten in TDs for three of the five years (Randy Moss, T.O., Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, and Marques Colston). Fitzgerald and Gates, 2 out of the 38, found their way into the top ten 4 out of 5 of the years. Each seasons’ bottom player caught either eight or nine TDs (it alternated each of the five seasons) and except for Randy Moss’ record-breaking ‘07-‘08 23 TD season, the top receiver caught either 12 (‘05-’06 and ’08-’09) or 13 (‘06-’07 and ’09-’10) TDs. The numbers were very consistent, but, as we can see from the data, most of the receivers were not.

This past season, a combined total of 15 receivers and tight ends who caught the top-ten cut-off, 9, TDs or more. In the past five years less than 30% or 4 players would repeat their past year’s feat. But before we get ourselves any further into what could be a statistical nightmare, there must be an easier and better way to predict the future. Right?

Luckily for us, focusing on the receiving yards, like I originally thought, seems to be a relatively strong indicator of future performance based on previous year’s success at the receiver and end positions. However, it’s not the number of total yards, but rather, how the receiver gets these yards. Thomas Sharkey over at profootballfocus.com discovered deep threat receivers, those whose yards per catch (YPC) exceeded 16.0, saw a drop-off in production in the very next season in the large majority of players. My data of the top-ten receivers also supported this claim. 6 of the 38 receivers exceeded 16.0 YPC. While one of the six, Reggie Williams, retired, only one, Greg Jennings of the Green Bay Packers was able to maintain production. But Sharkey, who recognizes Jennings’ exceptional year, attributes this to a massive increase in passes targeted at the young receiver. So it should come to no surprise that Jennings, who last year averaged 16.4 YPC, played in all 16 games yet saw his production drop by 179 yards and 5 TDs compared to the year before. A total decrease in roughly 47 FP! Luckily for Jennings owners, his QB is one of the best in the league at getting the ball to his top two receivers, and Jennings also happens to be a very good wide receiver. Most receivers would see their fantasy value plummet much more, as Sharkey points out.

Remember Braylon Edwards ‘06-‘07 season? 1289 yards 16 TDs, 16.1 YPC, and an estimated 224 FP. Ashley Lelie’s ‘04-‘05 season? 1084 yards, 7 TDs, 20.1 YPC, and an estimated 150 FP? And Bernard Berrian’s, pre-Brett Favre, ‘08-’09 sesaon? 964 yards, 7 TDs, 20.1 YPC, and an estimated 138 FP. Edwards dropped 119 FP, Lelie 67, and Berrian 53 (with Favre as the QB instead of Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson) FP. All saw their production drop dramatically.

So if there is one thing you want to avoid almost as much as D/ST units, it’s taking the deep threat WR that turns into a big bust. Maybe you should think twice about drafting DeSean Jackson (18.5 YPC), Vincent Jackson (17.2 YPC), and Miles Austin (16.3 YPC). I recommend staying away, unless you believe that they will see more targets (the number of times the ball is thrown in their direction) in the coming season. Instead, go after receivers whose targets (tgts) are already high, and their YPC is below 16.0, like Wes Welker (11.0 YPC and 162 Tgts), Anquan Boldin (12.2 YPC and 127 Tgts), and Santana Moss (12.9 YPC and 120 Tgts).

Now you’re equipped to deal with the middle rounds. We’ve only got the late rounds to cover and then a general draft strategy. But if you think that the drafts over before you’ve made your last pick, well, you clearly haven’t had your fill of college and professional football.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

So now you’ve taken your first few picks (after reading the previous rules #1 and #2) and you’re feeling pretty confident. But you realize you don’t know what to do now that you are in the middle of the draft. You see that Yahoo! has the unstoppable New York Jets Defense and Special Teams Unit ranked as the next best pick. Should you choose a D/ST in the 6^th round? Or should you pad your bench? But the bench doesn’t contribute. There’s only 10 seconds left! What do you do? Breathe. Relax. Take a sip of Matty Ice. Don’t worry. I’m here for you.

Rule #3: Wait on drafting a Defense/Special Teams (D/ST). This is probably one of the biggest mistakes most fantasy managers make. D/ST don’t need to be drafted until the last few rounds. Personally, I tend to wait until the last two rounds to take my kicker and D/ST (more on the kicker in upcoming Rule #5). The New York Jets Defense/Special Teams is pretty much the consensus number one pick among D/ST even though arguably the best cornerback in the league, Darrelle Revis, who is so vital to the Jets’ shutdown defense, is holding out with no end in sight. Regardless of the Revis holdout, the Jets D/ST is being picked in Yahoo! leagues with the 56.4 selection, on average, roughly in the middle of the 6^th round of an 8-10 team league. The Jets pick sounds fine and dandy until I tell you that, according to ESPN Fantasy Football expert Chris Harris, “Of the five pre-draft consensus No. 1 fantasy defenses in the past five seasons, exactly one finished among the top 10 defenses by season’s end.” Only one has finished among the top 10!

That one team would the 2006 Chicago Bears, which finished 2^nd in ESPN leagues. The Bears had dominated on defense the year before, but were immensely helped in 2006 by the 3 punt return TDs, and 2 kickoff return TDs, of Devin Hester. These 5 TDs added an additional 50 fantasy points (standard leagues award 10 points per special teams TD), or FP. Special Teams TDs are very difficult to predict, especially when the returner is a rookie (like Hester was). Do you know how many return TDs Hester has had in the past two seasons?  None. This isn’t entirely surprising as teams have been kicking away from Hester for the past two seasons. But why didn’t they do that in his second season, when he racked up an additional 6 return TDs?

Will Revis return? And can the Jets deliver with or without him?

Now, if are in your standard ten team league, you could be wasting a sixth round pick on the worst starting defense and special teams unit in the fantasy league! If you are taking a D/ST in the 6^th or7^th round, assuming that the league plays with two RBs, two WRs, and 1 Flex, you have not yet finished filling your starting skill position slots before drafting a D/ST! This is absurd. Last season, according to ESPN, the difference between the best D/ST unit, the San Francisco 49ers, and the last starting unit (which would be the tenth best starting unit), the Minnesota Vikings, was a measly 41 points (167 to 126). The 16^th best, or the middle of the pack, D/ST, claimed 111 FP, a difference of 66 points. This may sound like a lot of points, but the difference between the best running back, Chris Johnson, and the 20th running back, or the last starter, if everyone were to only draft running backs, was 186 FP, more than quadruple that of the point differential of the best and worst starting D/ST. While the difference for the other positions is smaller, it is still much greater than that of the D/ST. I will elaborate on this idea in a coming piece.

In the worst case, you will have to go to the free agency pool and stream defenses against terrible offenses. There are always very bad offenses that don’t score points and turn the ball over a lot. Last year’s four teams that scored fewer than 16.0 points per game were the Tampa Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns (15.3),  Oakland Raiders (12.3), and St. Louis Rams (10.9). In the past ten seasons, only twice have there been only two teams that scored under 16 points per game. So this seems like a trend that will continue. With this stat in mind, there are roughly ten to fifteen teams that can be picked up from free agency in a given week that will perform average-to-great in a given week  Drafting a defense and special teams unit in the mid-level rounds is just crazy.

Still not convinced? Let’s take a look at some of the players being drafted with later picks: From a quick glance at a list of the top 200 players’ average draft position (ADP), I saw 7 RBs including Lions RB Jahvid Best (a “stud” rookie taking over the starting role from, successful fantasy sleeper, Kevin Smith. Last season, Smith scored 131 FP in only 13.5 games), LeSean McCoy (a younger version of Brian Westbrook, in the same west-coast offense. Westbrook used to average among the top-ten RBs in), and Ronnie Brown (118 FP in only 9 games and one of the leagues most dominant RBs when healthy); 9 WRs, two of which are guys I am very, very high on: Donald Driver (135 FP last season) and Wes Welker (155 FP last season); 6 TEs including one of the most consistent ends in the past decade in Tony Gonzalez; and 7 QBs I wouldn’t mind taking with a late pick, my favorites being Matt Ryan (217 FP in 13 games. A healthy season should see his numbers back up around 265)  and Joe Flacco (240 FP last season and 2 great receiving corps additions in Anquan Boldin and the just injured Donte’ Stallworth to increase Flacco’s production). This comes to a total of 29 players! And that was from just a quick glance. There are so many more players I would rather take a flier on than a D/ST.

The problem with these defenses is the high-risk and low-reward of using a top-10 round pick. ESPN Fantasy Football’s Christopher Harris’ analysis of last year’s D/ST draft results indicates the difficulty in predicting even a top-ten D/ST unit. Four of the top ten D/ST from last season’s ESPN leagues were either drafted outside of the top ten, or not drafted at all. So the chance of snagging a starting unit after everyone else has theirs is almost 50%!

Clearly, from my list, there is a plethora of talented players, who are more likely to succeed but would be passed up if a D/ST is taken so high. As tempting as Patrick Willis makes the 49ers defense look, give your team a chance. Pass on the defense and draft a player with plenty of upside that could separate your team from the next.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Okay, now you know how the league works and you won’t get stuck wondering why Matt Forte was taken 40 spots earlier than you expected (you can read about this explanation in Dr. Z’s Rule #1). So what do you in the first few rounds?

Rule #2: In the early rounds, don’t draft above value. This is one of the toughest rules to keep. The best way to catch yourself before falling off the deep-end is by grouping your players, according to position, into tiers of value before you draft. Group players by position according to how many fantasy points you think they will accrue throughout the season. If you believe that the points of a group of, say, five running backs will be comparable, then you group them together into a tier. Unless you are in love with a wide receiver in your third tier, don’t draft him if most of the receivers in tier 2 are still available. In this case I would question why that player is in tier three and not tier two.

If you aren’t sure how to create a tier system, a quick Google of “Fantasy Football Tier” brings up a few good places to start. The first few rounds are the most important picks of the draft because this is when the top performers are usually picked. There are a few choices: The stable, elite players, who have been there, done that, year after year: the Andre Johnsons, Adrian Petersons, and Chris Johnsons of the league; and the elite players “of new” who have had “breakout” seasons, phenomenal catches, and exciting runs: the Rashard Mendenhalls and DesSean Jacksons. Although I had Jackson on my team last year (as a mid-round addition mind you), I wouldn’t bet on him in the first two rounds, where I have seen him taken too many times this year. It is crucial to pick players who will stabilize your team (more on consistency in an upcoming column). You don’t want to rock the boat by taking a guy who could flame out. If you’re taking him because of two seasons, or fewer, of elite success, you should be questioning the pick and seriously considering someone else. It’s easy to fall into the trap and draft on hype and excitement instead of performance and value. Young “studs” like Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson, and rookie “phenoms” like San Diego Chargers RB Ryan Mathews, tend to get a lot of hype that, in my opinion, they don’t deserve. I’m not saying that they won’t have stellar, or even elite, years. But they have not earned the high pick of a first or second rounder. There are just too many question marks.

Chris Johnson is only two seasons into his NFL career yet he has already established himself as a top RB.

Last season, the Chargers had the 22nd best (read: 10thworst) run offensive line according to profootballfocus.com’s film analysis. This is not surprising given the stats. The Chargers ranked second to last in yards per game (only the Colts were worse). Their 19^th most rushing attempts per game of 26.7 averaged them 88.7 yards per game. Their only saving grace for fantasy owners was LaDainian Tomlinson’s 12 TDs, which was a result of the strong passing game. That comes out to a league worst 3.3 yards per carry. And this is with the speedy Darren Sproles and the elusive, yet aging, LT. Why would rookie Mathews fare better, at least enough to grant him a late first round or early second round pick?

As for DeSean Jackson, the man is a serious deep threat with killer speed. But his numbers are much more than likely to regress. I seriously question if he is worth the value of a first or second round pick. Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Steven Jackson, and Adrian Peterson: these are the type of guys to draft early. It’s okay if you draft three wide receivers in a row before draft a running back, just as long as the guys are solid and consistent. Being flexible with the positions you draft early while sticking to value is key.

I’ve told you what to do in the pre-draft (know everything about your league!) and what to do in the first few rounds (draft based on proven production, not hype). Look out for the next in the series in which I tell you what to do next.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!

Disclaimer: Dr. Z claims in no way to be a medical, dental, or any other type of physician in any way. He has also never received a doctorate. He is only considered a “doctor” in the sense that he writes to remedy your fantasy football qualms, afflictions, and maladies.

Every January, as the fantasy football season wraps up, my friends and foes always ask me, “Dr. Z, what’s your secret? How do you do it? Tell me what you know.” Ok. Maybe not. But perhaps they should. As much as I love baseball, it’s never been my forte, although I have to say I’m quite proud of my fantasy team, “Ron’s Rehab Center” which currently sits 2^nd out of 12 teams. But I’m glad that football season is finally here! And lucky for you, I’ve decided to let you in on my strategies that have consistently kept me in striking range of my league trophy year after year. I’m hoping that “Albert’s Fitness Center” can follow in the footsteps of “Donte’s Driving School” and lead me to the championship for the second straight year in my annual “Bye Bye Brett” league.

Rule #1: Know your league. If you don’t know the scoring and roster setup, then most of what I, or anyone else, tell you is practically worthless. It is extremely important to know if your roster needs 3 Wide Receivers, a second Quarterback, and possibly even a Defensive player or a flex, etc. Does your team credit receptions and rushing attempts? Or just yards and touchdowns? Do you get bonus points for touchdowns scored from longer yardage plays?

Before two-back systems became the norm, rushers dominated fantasy leagues, racking up yards and touchdowns. In 2002, ten RBs scored 10 or more TDs, with eight of the ten scoring more than 10. In the same year, eight receivers accomplished this feet. But only three of these receivers exceeded 10 TDs. The league high in rushing TDs was 27 (Kansas City Chiefs RB Priest Holmes) while the league high in receiving TDs was 17 (WR Randy Moss, playing for the Minnesota Vikings at the time). You get the point. Running backs dominated the league.

The Points Per Reception (PPR) league scoring format was created to try to keep the value of the positions balanced by adding extra value to receivers and tight ends. The scoring was exactly the same as a standard league except that each reception would be worth a certain number of points, hence the name, “Points Per Reception.” In some leagues, the added value can be as low as 0.1 ppr, but it is usually posted at 1 ppr. Now, with rushers coming out of the backfield to make catches more frequently, the added value is extended not just to the receivers and tight ends, but to the running backs as well. Running backs such as Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears, who was third in the league last season with 57 receptions for 471, is currently being drafted in standard Yahoo! Leagues at 81.8, which is roughly in the beginning of the 9^th round. But in Yahoo! PPR leagues, his average draft position (ADP) is 42.8, roughly three-and-a-half-rounds (4.8) higher!

Matt Forte's pass-catching ability increases his value in PPR formats by roughly four rounds!

But it’s not as if Forte is the only RB to catch the ball out of the backfield. Why is his value that much higher in PPR leagues? Let’s compare him to Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (64.2 ADP) and Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno (70.6 ADP). Stewart rushed for 1133 yards and 10 TDs, and caught 18 passes for 139 yards and 1 score for an estimated 198 fantasy points, FP, in standard leagues. Moreno rushed for 947 yards and 7 scores, and had 28 catches for 213 yards and 2 TDs for an estimated 169 FP in standard leagues. Forte ran for 929 yards and 4 end zone appearances, while catching 57 passes for 471 yards and no touchdowns for an estimated 163 FP in standard leagues. As we can see, Forte has the lowest fantasy numbers of the three. But in PPR leagues that award 1 point per reception, Forte gains 57 points, Stewart an additional 18, and Moreno 28 points, giving Forte the edge with 220 FP to Stewart’s 210 and Moreno’s 197. Need I say more?

It takes only a few minutes but just looking into what positions you need to draft to fill out your roster, how the points are scored, and even how many other teams are in the league, can make the difference between drafting Matt Forte in the 4^th round and wondering why he did not fall to you in the 8^th round like you were expecting.

Contact: If you have a fantasy football question, comment, insult, or compliment for Dr. Z, send it to Nightcapkspc@gmail.com or call in to The Nightcap on KSPC Mondays 8-10 PM at (909) 626-KSPC. No inquiry is too big or small. It might even be featured in Dr. Z’s next column! Please include your first name and from which city you are writing.

Editor’s Note: This sports column is a regular feature from “The Nightcap” crew, a group of 5Cers who air a weekly radio sports talk show on KSPC. You can listen in online at KSPCstream.com or KSPC.org (click “Hear us Online via Live365”) every Monday from 8-10 PM. Want to join the radio show this year? We are looking for new people! Email us at nightcapKSPC@gmail.com!